November 19, 2008
Soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Wednesday on spillover strength of a strong rally in equity markets in late session, amid a lack of fundamental leads.
With prices coming off by 40% from their record highs hit earlier this year, such short-lived rallies occur as traders are unwilling to do any further short selling at this moment, analysts said.
The benchmark May 2009 soybean contract settled 1.6% higher at RMB3,282 a metric tonne, after trading between RMB3,229/tonne and RMB3,336/tonne.
"Most commodities -- metals, agricultural products -- followed a rally of domestic equity markets, though there wasn't any strong supportive news," said an analyst at an international trading house in Beijing.
"Speculators would rather buy, than sell, for the time being. After all, prices have come off the peak by so much," he said.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 6.1% Wednesday, after a 6.3% decline Tuesday.
Some analysts speculate that as imported soybean prices are now much lower than the RMB3,700/tonne China is paying farmers for building its state reserves, the government may buy more domestic soybeans, than what was previously decided, to support prices.
The Chinese government said late October it is buying soybeans from the northeast, a major producing region.
"With more imports arriving at the ports, domestic prices will be under pressure, if there is no follow-up policies to support prices," said Liu Xinghua, an analyst at Great Wall Futures.
Corn futures settled little changed.
Spot market trading was very thin during the past week, as farmers waited for state reserve warehouses to make purchases at a higher-than-market price, traders said. They said buying has just begun, and should be in full swing in a week or so.
Wednesday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne and volume for all contracts in lots:
Contract settlement Price Change Volume
Soybeans May 2009 3,282 Up 51 737,692
Corn May 2009 1,592 Dn 5 202,184
Soymeal May 2009 2,523 Up 15 546,166
Palm Oil Jan 2009 4,434 Dn 10 68,920
Soyoil Jan 2009 6,320 Up 30 327,148