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November 19, 2008
 
India Oilseed Weekly: Oilseed output for the kharif season at 16.41 million tonnes (week ended Nov 15, 2008)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary
 
Soy Indore prices were down this week and settled at Rs. 15,640 as compared to last week's closing rate of Rs. 16,500.
 
Commodity items including rapeseed, sunflower seeds, peanut kernal and rapeseed meal were stable as compared to last week's prices.
 
Soymeal Indore and peanut meal were the losers with a difference of Rs. 1,200 and Rs. 1,250 per tonne respectively.
 
The worst affected price was of sunflower meal, which settled at Rs. 8,800 from last week's Rs. 10,800.
 
Soymeal 48% was traded a little downward at Rs. 675 per tonne this week.
 
Groundnut Extraction (GNE) 40% and GNE 45% were traded at Rs. 13,000 and Rs. 14,000 per tonne respectively.
 
Soy prices (NCDEX December Contract) closed lower at Rs. 15,870 per tonne on Friday (November 14), from its high of Rs. 16,050 per tonne.
 
 
Market Analysis
 
The total production of major oilseeds during the ongoing kharif 2008 harvest season is estimated at 16.41 million tonnes, little changed from last kharif's 16.49 million tonnes, according to the Central Organization of Oil Industry and Trade, which held its annual meeting in Ahmedabad over the weekend.
 
Over 300 delegates from different parts of the country congregated to discuss trade related issues and arrive at crop estimate.
 
Grain prices may come under pressure once arrivals increase
 
Prices of corn touched Rs. 10,000 a tonne despite a ban on its export, just 45 days ago. The ban lapsed on October 15, but the price scenario has just turned upside down.
 
Corn prices are currently ruling at Rs. 7,600 to 8,250, lower than the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs. 8,400 fixed by the Indian government for the current kharif marketing season.
 
A similar situation prevails in other coarse grains too - be it Jowar, Bajra (finger millet), current market prices are lower than MSP.
 
Jowar prices, which had ruled at Rs. 12,000 per tonne 45 days ago are currently quoted at Rs. 8,100 a ton. Bajra prices are ruling between Rs. 7,200 and Rs. 7,350 against the MSP of Rs. 8,400 per tonne.
 
Prices of coarse grains have come under pressure mainly on increased arrivals. But more importantly, the global economic scenario is having a telling effect on these grains.
 
Last year around the same time, corn exporters were busy signing orders from buyers abroad. They are reported to have shipped out at least 3.5 million tonnes of corn between January and September this year. But since October, they have practically got no orders.
 
Soy
 
Amongst major oilseeds, soy continues to top the production chart. Estimate for the current season is 9.89 million tonnes up from 9.46 million tonnes last year. Madhya Pradesh with 5.8 million tonnes is the largest contributor, followed by Maharashtra at 2.9 million tonnes and Rajasthan at 0.63 million tonnes.
 
Groundnut
 
It is yet another year when groundnut has continued to fade in importance. Trade estimate of groundnut in shell output is 4.52 million tonnes, marginally down from last kharifs 4.87 million tonnes.
 
With 2.1 million tonnes, Gujarat accounts for close to half of the national kharif season groundnut output. South India, comprising Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, together contributes 1.4 million tonnes.
 
Sunflower
 
Sunflower seed production has declined to 0.4 million tonnes as Karnataka suffered errant rainfall.
 
 
Market forecast
 
Guar Seed
 
Prices remain steady to weak even as increase in arrivals coupled with steady demand aid this trend.
 
Soy
 
Prices ease with rise in arrivals and decrease in festive demand. Soy trades mildly weak on sluggish demand and increased arrivals.
  
Groundnut
 
Prices are stable at major markets but emerging export opportunities may see prices improving.
 

The comparison rates of nine commodities like Soy/ Peanut/ Rapeseed/ Sunflower and their meals

Commodities

Prices as on Nov 8

Prices as on Nov 14

Difference

   Soy (Indore)

16, 500

15, 640

-860

   Soy Meal 48%

14, 675  

14, 000

-675

   Soymeal Indore

14, 000

12, 800

-1, 200

   Peanut Kernal

31, 000

31, 000

Stable

   Peanut Meal

14, 750

13, 500

-1, 250

   Rapeseed

30, 000

30, 000

Stable

   Rapeseed Meal

10, 350 

10, 350

Stable

   Sunflower

28, 000

28, 000

Stable

   Sunflower Meal 

10, 800

8, 800

-2, 000

US$1 = Rs 49.525 (Nov 19, 2008)

 


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