November 19, 2004
Momentum of Rising Pork Prices in China Likely to Slow in the 4th Quarter
A Review of China's Hog Industry in 3rd Quarter 2004
An eFeedLink Special Report
Below is an abstract of the report: Momentum of Rising Pork Prices in China Likely to Slow in the 4th Quarter
The full report is specially prepared for subscribed Individual or Corporate Members of eFeedLink's Information Website. The report is dispatched to Members by email. If you are not yet an eFeedLink's Information Website Member, click Here to register for a 2-week free trial.
Pork prices in China have been rising continuously since early this year. According to the monthly analysis by China's Livestock and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture, the country's average pork retail price hit historical high of RMB15.21/kg in September. In the third quarter of 2004, China's pork retail price averaged RMB14.68/kg, a rise of 38.49% compared to the same period in 2003.
With the good profit margins, farmers are highly motivated in increasing their hog inventories. A compilation of market data show that the overall inventory of mature live hogs in some of China's hog production regions has fallen during the third quarter of this year, with live hog prices hovering at high levels. However, the inventories of boars, sows and piglets have shown different levels of increase over the period and the positive hog production trend will most likely continue into the fourth quarter.
After the week-long China's National Day holidays (October 1-7), pork prices in parts of China have dropped by different margins and some regions have shown signs of price decline. Given that the fourth quarter is a traditionally peak season for hog slaughtering in China with the approach of several festive seasons, pork supply in the country will remain ample. Analysts say that barring any unexpected market developments, China's pork price hikes in the fourth quarter is likely to drop by more than 20% compared to the price increases for the third quarter.
More contents in this 3-page report include:
I. Pork Prices Rose in the 3rd Quarter as Overall Live Hog Inventory Falls
II. Live Hog and Pork Prices Likely to Fall Marginally in the 4th Quarter
- Positive Production and Development Trends in China's Hog Industry
- Rise in Grains Production Positive for Hog Farming in China
- China's Meat Imports to Rise in the 4th Quarter
