November 19, 2003

US Cattle Feedlot Inventory To Up From Year Ago
 

The USDA Monthly Cattle On Feed Report due out Friday afternoon is expected to show a year-over-year increase in the U.S. feedlot inventory for the first time in two years.

Trade estimates of the November 1 feedlot inventory average 102.9%, up from a year earlier in a range from 101.5%-104%, according to a survey done by OsterDowJones Commodity News Service.

The feedlot inventory is expected to jump above a year earlier due to continued strong placements of cattle in feedlots and a sharp drop-off in feedlot marketings.

Record high cattle prices during October are seen driving a double-digit increase in placements, while tight market-ready cattle supplies and packer slaughter cutbacks slashed marketingings.

Estimates of October feedlot placements average 113.3%, up from last year's range from 110%-118%; while estimates of October marketings average 90% in a range from 89%-95%.

However, the November 1 on feed total is also being compared to a very low number for a year ago. Even if on-feed supplies are up 2.9% from last year as the trade expects, they will still be 6.8% below the November 1, 2001 total.