November 17, 2009

At a time when the corn harvest is usually wrapping up, barely more than half has been taken from the fields, the US Department of Agriculture said in its weekly crop progress report.

 

Meanwhile, the soy harvest is getting closer to completion and winter wheat development is falling behind.

 

The report's estimates were not a big departure from trade expectations, but underscored the slow pace of this year's crop due to lousy weather.

 

The corn harvest picked up pace in the past week, as expected, amid several days of dry conditions in the US corn belt. The completion of the soy harvest in many areas allowed farmers to turn their attention to their corn, analysts said.

 

The corn crop was 54 percent harvested as of Sunday, up from 37 percent the prior week but well below 77 percent last year and the five-year average of 89 percent. Analysts were expecting anywhere from 50 percent to 60 percent of the harvest to be complete.

 

But the crop in some northern Corn Belt states remained very far behind schedule. Harvest was only 35 percent complete in Michigan, 43 percent in Minnesota, 27 percent in South Dakota, 38 percent in Wisconsin and 8 percent in North Dakota.

 

"That northern region, if the snows set in, that corn could be in there until spring," said Arlan Suderman, analyst for Farm Futures. "That's definitely a concern from a production standpoint, a quality standpoint, and for next year, being able to turn those acres around."

 

In Illinois, a key corn producer, only 52 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 31 percent the prior week but down from the average of 95 percent. Suderman said he has spoken to producers in Illinois who expect to be harvesting corn in January.

 

Wet weather across much of the Corn Belt this week could limit the progress, analysts said.

 

Benson Quinn Commodities analyst Jon Michalscheck also notes in a commentary that the government has stopped reporting on the portion of the crop that hasn't even reached maturity, "which still appears to be fairly widespread" in northern Minnesota and the Dakotas.

 

The portion of the US crop rated good to excellent was 67 percent, down from 68 percent the prior week.

 

The soy harvest is becoming less of an issue, although producers haven't reached the finish line yet.

 

The USDA said the soy harvest was 89 percent complete as of Sunday, up from 75 percent the prior week but below the five-year average of 96 percent. Traders had pegged the progress at 90 percent.

 

"Most major soy producing states remain behind normal pace but significant advances were made with last week's dry weather," Benson Quinn Commodities analyst Kim Rugel said in a market commentary.

 

The market is starting to turn its attention to South America's weather and its planting season. Suderman said the soy lingering in US fields could become a problem, however, if they are still there a couple weeks from now. Unlike corn, soy won't withstand the winter.

 

"Because demand is so strong, it is essential we get those bushels," Suderman said.

 

Winter wheat planting is almost done, with 90 percent planted as of Sunday, up from 86 percent the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 95 percent.

 

"Real concerns about the wheat, particularly some of the soft red winter states where not only have we not been able to get planted, but worse than that the (slow) emergence levels," Suderman said.

 

The USDA said that 77 percent of the winter wheat crop had emerged, up from 71 percent the prior week but below the five-year average of 87 percent.

 

Illinois' crop was only 45 percent emerged, compared to the average of 92 percent, Indiana was 55 percent emerged compared to the 90 percent average, and Missouri was only 33 percent emerged versus the 72 percent average.

 

The slow emergence means that the crop will need a favourable winter. Slow emergence limits the ability of the crop to store water and weather adverse conditions over the winter, he said.

 

Still, the slower emergence mainly just offers background support, he said, as stocks are ample and the Black Sea region poses competition for US wheat.

 

Sixty-four percent of the US crop was rated good-to-excellent, up one percentage point from the prior week.