November 17, 2005

 

Brazil unveils plan to combat possible bird flu pandemic
 

 

Brazil on Wednesday announced a contingency plan to combat a possible flu pandemic in Latin America's largest country, in case the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus mutated into a form that could be easily passed between people.

 

The plan, which has been in the works since 2003, included committing US$118 million to buy 90 million doses of the anti-flu medicine Tamiflu, readying government scientists to develop a possible vaccine and setting up centers for rapid detection of lethal viruses nationwide.

 

The aim of the plan, which would be submitted to specialists during a two-day conference starting Thursday, was to prepare Brazil to fight a human flu pandemic that scientists feared could emerge from the bird flu virus now circulating in Asia and parts of Europe.

 

"No country is immune, but we have a number of factors that act in our favor," Health Minister Jose Saraiva Felipe said at a news conference launching the contingency plan.

 

He noted, for example, that Brazil was a huge exporter of chickens - meaning foreign birds were unlikely to enter the country as imports.

 

Another advantage was that Brazil's migratory birds did not fly to Asia or any other regions where H5N1 has so far been detected. The deadly strain has not been reported anywhere in the Americas.

 

Still, Felipe said it was important for Brazil to be prepared and to deal with the virus openly should it be detected there.

 

Felipe said the government had set up 46 centers in 21 states around the country capable of detecting the virus, and was working to set up more.

 

Government experts have also used mathematical models to chart possible scenarios should the flu mutate into a form that could be easily passed to and between people, and has predicted it could infect two to 10 percent of the population.

 

Under one scenario, Felipe said, a human flu pandemic could lead to as many as 550,000 people requiring hospitalisation, and up to 25,000 dying. But he said that was a pessimistic and unlikely scenario.

 

Government scientists were also ready to try to develop a vaccine in case a human strain developed, though that could not be done until such a virus emerged, he said.

 

Asked if Brazil would seek to break Roche's (RHHBY) patent on the anti-flu drug Tamiflu, Felipe said it would be foolish because Brazil could not produce a generic version of the drug. The World Health Organization allowed countries to break commercial drug patents in a national emergency.

 

"It would be perfectly justified to break the patent in light of the health emergency, but there's no point in breaking a patent if you then have to beg the laboratory for the technology to make the drug," Felipe said.

 

He said the government and Roche were discussing the possibility of obtaining the needed technology, but the process could take two or three years.

 

Tamiflu was normally used to treat influenza patients during the flu season, but supplies have become tight because governments and other organisations were stockpiling it in case the H5N1 virus mutated into a human strain.

 

Lab tests indicated Tamiflu worked against H5N1, which has killed at least 64 people in Asia since 2003 and prompted authorities to kill millions of birds.