November 17, 2005

USDA: World agricultural supply and demand estimates
 

This month's outlook for 2005/06 U.S. corn is for increased production, higher domestic consumption, larger stocks, and lower prices. Forecast 2005 corn production is up 175 million bushels from last month to 11.032 billion bushels (the second largest crop on record). 

U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 11.1 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 94.9 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month mainly due to increased soybean production.

Soybean production is forecast at 3,043 million bushels, up 76 million bushels due to increased yields. Soybean crush is raised 25 million bushels due to larger available supplies and higher-than-expected soybean meal use in recent months. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 1,075 million bushels based on lower-than-expected sales and shipments, particularly to EU-25 and China.

Soybean oil production, consumption, exports, and stocks are all raised this month.  Increased soybean oil use for the 2005/06 marketing year primarily reflects expected increases in biodiesel production.

The total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are reduced from last month mainly because of lower beef output. Beef output in the fourth quarter of 2005 is lowered because the marketing pace has slowed and fewer steers and heifers are expected to be slaughtered.

Forecast milk production in 2005 and 2006 is increased from last month. Although recent milk cow numbers and dairy herd replacement prices point to slightly slower growth in milk cow herds, output per cow continues to advance as producer returns are expected to remain favorable. 

For the full USDA report, click here.