November 17, 2004

Beef Production Seen to Rise in the European Union

Beef production in the European Union is projected to rise 1% in the end of year returns for 2004, before returning to 2% in 2005. This comes as adjustment takes place post decoupling and the introduction of the single payment.

The EU Beef Forecasting Committee expects consumption to display a stable result for this year and consumption to remain constant for 2005. With a fall in production expected next year, the shortfall of beef within the EU is estimated to rise to 350,000 tons.

According to Bord Bia, beef imports from South America, Brazil, Uruguay and Argentine are continuing to increase at a steady rate, having already accounted for a total of 508,000 tons of beef shipped in the EU in 2003.

Sales to the EU from these countries grew 13% during the first seven months of 2004, with the overall increase in sales for the cheaper imported beef expected to continue. Brazil is the single largest supplier of beef into the EU, representing 55% of imports, with Argentina at 18% and Uruguay at 9%.

Imports to Germany and France are forecast to rise by more than 10% for the year. Meanwhile, Italian and northern European markets are expected to show increases of between 2% and 6% in imports.

In terms of production, male beef is expected to be 2% lower in Ireland for 2004. Production has fallen by 31% in Finland and 15% in the Netherlands - on very small bases in both countries.

Germany is registering the biggest increase at 20,000 tons, while production in Italy is predicted to rise 15,000 tons this year with smaller increases in Luxembourg and Portugal.

Heifer beef production is set to decrease by 6% in Ireland in 2004 and grow in Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands.