November 16, 2009

 

The US soy crush rate in the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soy crush report for October is expected to climb from the previous month, coming in near 139.1 million bushels, according to the average estimate in a survey of industry analysts.

 

NOPA's report on the October soy crush is scheduled to be released today at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).

 

Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 134.5 million bushels to as high as 144 million bushels. In September, the crush was measured at 107.4 million bushels, and analysts said the crush in October would increase by about 31.7 million bushels.

 

The NOPA report includes figures only from member processors.

 

Better soy availability in October, solid crushing margins and a strong cash premium for soymeal served as catalysts for higher crushing rates in October, said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago.

 

Crushings should have increased as new crop supplies moved into consumption channels, but the pace of crushings was still constrained by bean availability, said Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst with Prudential Bache in New York.

 

Crush margins were high, but the question remained, how many new crop soys processors received in the month due to harvest delays, said Frick.

 

Overall, analysts' estimates of the October NOPA crush are a pure guess, given the slow pace of this year's soy harvest, said Jerry Gidel, an analyst with North America Risk Management Services. Harvest progress rose from 5 percent Sept. 27 to 30 percent Oct. 18, he said.

 

Meanwhile, NOPA soyoil stocks in October are expected to decline to 2.248 billion pounds from 2.262 billion pounds in September. Estimates ranged from as low as 2.100 billion pounds to as high as 2.600 billion pounds.

 

Strong export demand and marginal improvements in domestic use served as the catalysts for the decline in inventories, analysts said.

 

Soyoil exports surged in October and soyoil yields look to be a little smaller this marketing year, Frick said.

 

Improved biodiesel production and margins helped limit any soyoil stock increases from higher crushing activity, said Basse.