November 15, 2006

US feed grain production lowered to 286 million tonnes

US feed grain production for 2006/07 is forecast at 286 million tonnes, down 5 percent from last season and 1 percent from last month.

The month-to-month drop came from corn and sorghum with barley and oats remaining unchanged this month. With no changes in beginning stocks or imports, total supply fell the same amount as production.

Total 2006/07 feed grain utilisation is projected at 315 million tonnes, down from 318 million last month, and up from 304 million in 2005/06. Feed and residual use was decreased for corn and sorghum this month lowering domestic use to 255 million tons from 256 million last month, but up from 244 million in 2005/06.

Exports were lowered this month to 61 million tonnes from 62 million, but up from 60 million in 2005/06. Stocks were decreased to 27 million tons, the smallest since 1996/97.

On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2006/07 is projected to total 164 million tonnes, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Corn is estimated to account for 94 percent of the total, the same as in 2005/06.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2006/07 stands at 93.6 million units, up from last year's 91.5 million.

The year-to-year increase in GCAUs occurred because inventories for all the animal categories are expected to increase.

Milk production in 2007 is projected to be up 1 percent from this year's. While projected pork production is unchanged from last month, it is forecast up 4 percent from 2006. Total poultry production in 2007 was projected down this month as the forecast was lowered slightly for broiler production. Total poultry production, however, is expected to exceed that in 2006 by 1 percent.