November 15, 2004

World Poultry Exports Expected to Increase 7.2% in 2005

Brazil is the emerging leader in broiler meat exports, surpassing the United States in the 2004 and 2005 forecasts.  However, Asian markets will determine long-term growth in broiler meat production and consumption.  In 2003 and 2004, high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks disrupted production and exports in Asia, Netherlands, Canada and the United States.  Although HPAI outbreaks have limited world broiler meat exports, other economic factors such as exchange rates, energy prices, and feed production are influencing broiler meat production of leading suppliers. 

In 2004, cooked poultry meat production significantly grew as Asian suppliers adjusted to bans placed on uncooked poultry meat due to avian influenza (AI) outbreaks.  Increased demand from consuming countries and increased interest from supplying countries wishing to mitigate market risk from AI-related bans will influence cooked poultry production and trade.  In late 2003 and 2004, demand shifts for cooked broiler meat in Japan and the EU resulted from import-bans due to AI.  Both China and Thailand shifted a considerable amount of exports from uncooked to cooked poultry to reduce export market loss due to HPAI outbreaks.  Despite these efforts, Brazil largely benefited from its competitors¡¯ loss of exports in key markets.