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November 14, 2008

                          

Strategie Grains predicts slight fall in 2009 EU grain area
                    

 

EU grain crop plantings for the 2009 harvest are expected to be slightly lower than the previous year, a Strategie Grains report said Thursday (November 13, 2008).

 

The overall grain area planted will be down by around 2 percent, or 1.07 million hectares, compared with the previous year, the company forecast.

 

Plantings in 2008 were boosted by the EU abolishing its 10 percent mandatory arable land set-aside scheme, but Strategie Grains said this land may not all be used in 2009.

 

The report said that as a result of declining profit margins on farms in the EU this year, we estimate that around 0.6 million hectares of former set-aside land will be returned to set-aside again in 2009-10.

 

While soft wheat, corn and barley plantings are expected to contract slightly, oilseed area is set to grow a small amount, the report said.

 

Looking at the current crop, the EU 2008-09 grain production forecast has been revised upwards by the company to 310.4 million tonnes, from the October estimate of 308.6 million tonnes. This represents a 21 percent increase on the 2007-08 grain crop.

 

The rise on the month was due to an increase of 1.1 million tonnes to the corn production forecast to 61.05 million tonnes, combined with lesser increases to soft wheat and barley output forecasts.

 

The EU wheat surplus estimate was maintained at 7.5 million tonnes.

                                                               

OUTPUT (million tonnes)
   
Grain
November
October
Aug-07
Change On Yr (%) 
2008-2009
2008- 2009
Soft wheat
140.1
139.5
111.8
25
Barley
65.8
65
57.5
14
Corn
61
60.4
47.8
28
TOTAL  
310.4
308.6
256.2
21
 
YIELDS (metric tonnes/hectare)
 
Grain
November
October
Aug-07
Change On Yr (%)
Sep-08
Sep-08
Soft wheat
6.1
6
5.1
18
Barley
4.5
4.5
4.2
8
Corn
7
7
6
17
AVERAGE
5.2
5.2
4.6
14
 
AREA SOWN (million hectares)
 
Grain
November 2008-09
October 2008-09
Aug-07
Change On Yr (%)
Soft wheat
23.1
23
21.9
6%
Barley
14.5
14.4
13.7
6%
Corn
8.7
8.6
8
9%
TOTAL
59.6
59.3
56.3
6%
                

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