November 14, 2005

US October soy crush seen climbing to 149 million bushels

The US October soybean crush in the in the National Oilseed Processors Association's (NOPA) monthly soybean crush report is expected to rise from the previous report to 149 million bushels, according to a survey of industry analysts.

Soybean crush is expected to rise due to the large availability new-crop supplies, wide board crush margins, reduced competition from export markets and strong domestic soymeal use in recent months, analysts said.

NOPA's report is scheduled to be released Monday at 7:30 a.m. CST (1330 GMT).

Estimates for the soybean crush ranged from as low as 147 million bushels to as high as 152.5 million bushels. In the previous report, crush for the month of September was measured at 127.1 million bushels.

The availability of fresh new-crop supplies recharged crushing activity, promoting a big recovery in crushing rates, said Dan Cekander, analyst with Fimat in Chicago.

The industry usually sees a big jump of between 22 million and 25 million bushels in the crush when new-crop supplies hit the pipeline, particularly with good crush margins, said a cash-connected CBOT broker.

Meanwhile, NOPA soyoil stocks in October are expected to hold steady near the 1.374 billion pounds reported in September. Estimates ranged from as low as 1.349 billion pounds to as high as 1.414 billion pounds.

There was a general consensus among analysts surveyed for a modest increase in soyoil stocks due to increased crushing activity. However, Cekander said, with slightly stronger soyoil export demand, in addition to increased usage of soyoil for bio-diesel starting to kick in, a reduction in stocks is possible.