November 11, 2011
US corn, soy production forecast revised down
US corn production was forecast at 12,309,936,000 bushels, down 1% from 12,432,910,000 bushels forecast in October and soy production was forecast at 3,045,558,000 bushels, down 14,429,000 bushels from 3,059,987,000 bushels in October, according a USDA report on November 9 (Wed).
Both USDA production numbers were below the average of pre report trade estimates of 12,402 million bushels for corn and 3,059 million bushels for soy.
Based on November 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 146.7 bushels an acre, down 1.4 bushels from 148.1 bushels an acre in October and down 6.1 bushels from 152.8 bushels an acre as the final 2010 average yield. Harvested area was forecast at 83.9 million acres, unchanged from October but up 3% from 81.4 million acres in 2010.
"If realised, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the US.," the USDA said. The corn yield average would be the lowest since 2003.
Soy yield was forecast at 41.3 bushels an acre, down 0.2 bushel from 41.5 bushels an acre in October and down 2.2 bushels from 43.5 bushels an acre in 2010. Harvested area was forecast at 73.7 million acres, unchanged from October and down 4% from 76.6 million acres in 2010.
The USDA yield numbers were below the average trade forecast of 147.9 bushels an acre for corn 41.5 bushels an acre for soy.
"If realised, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003," the USDA said.
Sorghum production in 2011 was forecast at 245,909,000 bushels, up 1% from 243,800,000 bushels in October but down 29% from 345,395,000 bushels in 2010 and the lowest since 1956, the USDA said. Harvested area at 4.43 million acres was unchanged from October, down 8% from 2010 and the lowest since 1936.
US 2011 rice production was forecast at 188,069,000 cwts, up 1% from 186,903,000 cwts in October but down 23% from 243,104,000 cwts in 2010.