November 11, 2009
Increase in exports fail to balance US oilseed increase in supply in 2009-10
Oilseed crush is almost unchanged as a small increase for soy is offset by a reduction for cottonseed. Total US oilseed production is projected at 97.8 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from last month due to higher soy production.
Soy production is forecast at a record 3.319 billion bushels, up 69 million bushels from last month. The soy yield is projected at a record 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the previous estimate.
Soy exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1.325 billion due to increased supplies and increased global import demand, mainly for China, EU and Russia. Soy ending stocks are projected at 270 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from last month.
Prices for soy and products are projected higher for 2009-10, reflecting higher corn and soy futures prices. The US season-average soy price range is projected at US$8.20 to US$10.20 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range.
Soymeal price is projected at US$250 to US$310 per short tonne, up US$5 on both ends of the range. The soyoil price range is projected at 33 cents to 37 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2009-10 is projected at 428.9 million tonnes, up 3.6 million tonnes from last month. Increased soy and rapeseed production are only partly offset by lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanut production.
Global oilseed stocks for 2009-10 are raised 3.1 million tonnes to 69.0 million tonnes. Increased soy stocks for Brazil, the US, and China account for most of the change. Rapeseed stocks for Canada, EU and India are also increased. China soy imports are raised for 2008-09 and 2009-10 to 41.1 million tonnes and 40.5 million tonnes, respectively.
Soy exports for 2009-10 are raised for Brazil and Argentina. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected one million tonnes higher due to increases in soyoil stocks for Brazil, China, and India, and increased palm oil stocks for China and Malaysia.
