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November 10, 2011

Thai Feed Weekly: Prices of rice products soar as government revises up rice crop damage (week ended Nov 7)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary
 
Prices of rice by-products used in Thai feeds have surged following government estimates Thailand could lose a quarter of its annual rice production to its worst flooding in six decades.
 
The price of broken rice now trades at US$565 a tonne, a hefty increase of more than 10% from last week's quote of US$509. Thai feed mills use about a million tonnes of broken rice a year. The price of white rice bran also went by up by 10% to THB10.80/kg, from THB9.50/kg last week.
 
Prices of other locally sourced feed raw materials, such as corn and cassava, also increased, but, not as sharply in anticipation of supply shortage. Millions of acres of croplands have been submerged in 30 provinces across the country due to months of unusually heavy rainfall.
 
 
Market analysis
 
Apichart Jongsakul, head of the Thai Office of Agricultural Economics, says Thailand's rice output this year could fall by six million tonnes, almost a quarter of earlier production forecast of 25 million tonnes.
 
His current estimate is 50% higher than what his office had earlier projected. And even this expected six million tonne shortfall is a conservative estimate, he says. It could be higher once a more comprehensive survey is done after the water had receded, according to him.
 
Last week, the Thai Feed Mill Association asked the government to immediately allow importation of at least 160,000 tonnes of corn to avoid feed shortage. The association expects domestic corn output this year to drop by about one million tonnes because of flood damage.
 
The association has told the Ministry of Commerce that feed costs have gone up by 10% during the last few weeks because of increases in raw material prices and transportation costs. Prices of cassava and rice byproducts have also been on the rise since the start of the flooding in September.
 
The help ease the burden of feed manufacturers, the government announced last week the lifting of import quotas for soymeal and fishmeal for the next three years. Import quotas for feed raw materials are normally reviewed every year but will now be reviewed every three years.
 
The yearly review for corn-import quota, however, remains in place.
 

 

PRICE as of  October 31
(in Thai baht/kg)

PRICE as of  November 7
(in Thai baht/kg)

Changes
(in Thai baht/kg)

Corn (Delivered to feed factory)

9.40-9.60

9.50-9.70

+0.10

Cassava

2.25 – 2.50

2.45-3.00

+(0.20-0.50)

White Broken Rice A.1 Super (US$/tonne)

509.00

565.00

+56.00

White rice bran

9.40-9.50

10.30-10.80

+(0.50-0.90)

Rice bran residue 

8.40-8.50

8.50-9.20

+(0.10-0.30)

Soy

11.60-14.45

11.60-14.45

--

Soymeal (imported)

15.50

15.50

--

Soymeal (local)

15.30-15.50

15.30-15.50

--

Fishmeal (shrimp grade)

25.00-37.98

25.00-37.98

--

US$1=THB 30.80 (November 10, 2011)

 


 
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