US pork up, chicken demand lower than year-ago

US consumer-level demand for pork remained strong through September, according to the University of Missouri, report Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The index of pork demand gained 0.1 percent relative to last year and stood 4-percent higher at the end of February.

The higher index means that retail prices have not had to be lowered as much as expected to move the larger quantities of pork that have been placed on the US market since the novel AH1N1 influenza situation began in late April.

In fact, monthly domestic pork disappearance in June, July and August 2009 were all among the top three in history for the respective month.

Beef demand continued in a difficult year, falling 0.3 percent farther being last year's level. The beef demand index now stands 2.3-percent lower than last year. Should it end the year at this level, the index will be at its lowest level since 1999.

Chicken demand remained lower than one year ago at 2.9 percent but gained 0.5 per cent on last year's level in September.

Chicken demand has improved relative to last year every month so far in 2009 but it began the year at such an abysmal level that it had little place to go but up.

The chicken situation was just the opposite of that faced by pork as retail chicken prices could not be improved enough even with unprecedented reductions in quantity supplied. And chicken prices are still nothing to shout about - as can be seen in the chart.

The biggest culprits relative to 2008 have been legs and leg quarters. Both of those got an apparent windfall in May and June, presumably as substitutes for pork in either domestic or export markets or both.