November 10, 2004

Argentina's 2004-05 Soy Harvest Seen At 37 Million MT
 
Argentine farmers are likely to produce around 37 million metric tons of soybeans in 2004-05, according to the local brokerage Granos del Parana on Tuesday.
 
This forecast falls short of the most recent estimate by the US Department of Agriculture, which sees 2004-05 Argentine output at 39 million tons.
 
"In Argentina, the (Agriculture Secretariat) estimated that 2004-05 area would not change significantly from the previous year. This means we can estimate area at 14.5 million hectares and production of around 37 million tons," Granos del Parana said.
 
While climatic conditions were excessively dry earlier this year, recent rain has allowed the soil to recover adequate moisture, the brokerage said. Moreover, local weather experts expect this year's soybean crop to receive more rain than in previous years.
 
However, the additional humidity also carries with it some risk, analysts say. Asian rust - a fast traveling fungal disease - thrives in humid climates. Farmers have been on guard for the disease, buying and learning how to apply fungicide, which can effectively combat the rust.
 
It would be a record for Argentina if soybean output hits 37 million tons. The previous record was set in 2002-03, when production totaled 34.8 million tons, according to the Agriculture Secretariat.
 
Meanwhile, South American soybean output is also expected to reach record levels, the brokerage said.
 
"South American soybean production in 2004-05 should surpass 103 million tons, up 16 million from 2003-04," Granos del Parana forecast.
 
However, the brokerage noted that this estimate is below the USDA forecast, which sees total output for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay at 111.25 million tons.