November 9, 2006

 

Brazil's soy planting intentions at 21.3 million hectares

 

 

Brazil agribusiness consultancy AgRural said Wednesday (Nov 8) that 2006/07 soy planting intentions will be 21.3 million hectares, 4 percent less than the 2005/06 crop, instead of previous estimates of a 7 percent drop to slightly above 20 million hectares.

 

Higher-than-expected soybean prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade have attracted farmers back to the fields by some 585,000 hectares in recent weeks, AgRural said. International soybean prices are near US$7 a bushel for May and over US$7 a bushel for July.

 

Most of the growth is coming from the southern states, especially Rio Grande do Sul. Southern states should increase planted area by 5 percent in the 2006/07 soy crop instead of early estimates of a 1 percent increase. The region is currently planting soybeans.

 

All other regions will reduce planted area when compared to 2005/06, but AgRural said it expected states like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias in the centre-west soy belt to increase planted area in comparison to the firm's October estimate.

 

Mato Grosso should plant 5.3 million hectares, up from 5 million hectares in the October estimate, but down from 5.9 million hectares in the 2005/06 season. Mato Grosso is Brazil's leading soy producer.

 

Early yield estimates have improved as well to 2,621 kilogrammes per hectare on a national level, compared with 2,538 kg in the October estimate and 2,403 kg in the 2005/06 crop year. Yields suffered last season because of dry weather in parts of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia, and a general lack of investments in herbicides and fungicides.

 

Yield estimates improved in November for the centre-west states, now at 2,766 kg per hectare compared with 2,697 kg per hectare in October, but down 4 percent from the 2,896 kg per hectare in the 2005/06 season. Most of that is due to farmers spending less on agro-chemicals and fertilizers.

 

Yields in the south also improved in November to 2,509 kg a hectare. That yield compared to 2,394 kg a hectare in October's estimate and 2,104 kg in the 2005/06 season.

 

Total production output is put at 55.9 million tonnes, up from 52.6 million tonnes in October and 53.4 million tonnes in the 2005/06 crop, AgRural said, providing weather conditions remain favourable throughout the summer months.

 

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soy producer and exporter behind the US.