November 9, 2005

  
Bird flu in EU might cause US$1 billion export losses

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that a major bird flu outbreak in the EU might cause US$1 billion in export losses, push down domestic prices there but drive up international poultry prices.

FAO said the recent European outbreaks close to EU member states have raised "considerable concerns about the industrial impact."

FAO added that its economic model had combined the impact of bird flu in Europe with the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Brazil, a global meat exporter.

Preliminary conclusions from the analysis suggested international meat prices might be higher in the short term, by seven to eight percent for poultry and beef, and 3 percent for pork, FAO said.

FAO said restrictions on Asian exports last year and the first half of this year had contributed to a 20 percent rise in international poultry prices. This contrasted sharply with declining domestic prices in bird flu-hit countries.

Meanwhile, FAO said international poultry trade fell by about eight percent over the same period. Restrictions on Thai and Chinese poultry products had caused 2004-05 Asian exports to fall to under 1 million tonnes, from 1.8 million tonnes in 2003.