November 8, 2007

 

Louis Dreyfus Brazil sees 2007/08 soy crop at 60 million tonnes

 

 

Louis Dreyfus Commodities in Brazil said Wednesday (November 7) that the 2007/08 soy crop here could be lower than the roughly 60 million tonnes most market analysts are currently estimating.

 

"We are shooting for 58 million tonnes," said Andre Roth, oilseed sales director for Louis Dreyfus in Brazil.

 

Roth blamed the weather phenomenon La Nina for the reduction, citing expectations of dry weather later in the year.

 

"Most of the forecasts being made right now for Brazilian soy are based on yields from last year and we find that risky," Roth said.

 

Even though the number is lower than market estimates by Brazil's main trading companies and crop-estimating agribusiness consulting firms, the National Commodities Supply Corp, or Conab, has put new Brazilian soy estimate between 59.3 million and 61.2 million tonnes.

 

Also on Wednesday, consulting group AgRural estimated a 62.7 million- tonne soy crop, making Louis Dreyfus' estimate the lowest to date.

 

Roth said he expects 2006/07 soy exports to beat last year's volume despite a decline from January to September in comparison to the same period last year.

 

"We know that we (at Dreyfus) will be exporting more soy this year than we did the year before," Roth said, adding that the company should ship around 1.5 million tonnes of soy to world markets from the 2006/07 crop.

 

Industry estimates are for Brazil to export 25.9 million tonnes of soy from the 2006-07 crop and 26.8 million tonnes from the 2007/08 crop, according to the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association.

 

From January to September, Brazil exported 20 million tonnes of soy compared to 21.8 million over the same 9-month period last year, according to Cargonovo Maritime Shipping Agency Ltda.

 

Brazil is the world's No. 2 soy exporter and producer behind the US. 

 

Louis Dreyfus is one of Brazil's top five soy crushers and exporters.