November 8, 2006

 

Brazil's soy market awaiting new price highs, traders say

 

 

After selling into the market late last week, Brazil soy growers momentarily have put the brakes on for 2006/07 new crop sales, traders said.

 

"Chicago has good prices for them still, but farmers want to test new highs, see where that market is going to go from here," said a trader at Coimex, one of Brazil's largest commodities exporters.

 

The only expected news coming out of the soy market here this week is that the

National Commodities Supply Corp (Conab) will release their second 2006/07 soy crop estimate Thursday (Nov 9), and one million tonnes of soybeans will be offered in federal auctions in nine states Friday.

 

"There's not much left of the old crop, and what is left is for the local, regional markets. Farmers in the south have not done much selling this week so far and the centre-west is waiting for Friday," said Steve Cachia, a soy market analyst at grain brokerage firm Cerealpar.

 

The auctions are part of a 1 billion Brazilian real (US$469 million) subsidy programme for soybeans designed to give farmers in the centre-west and north-east an above-market rate for their soybeans. The entire region was selling soy below the cost of production in the 2005/06 season until the auctions began in June.

 

There is some concern at this moment that participation among the major international soy crusher firms will be small because the companies won't get paid the subsidy until much later in the year, said Andre Debastiani, a soy market analyst for Agroconsult, an agribusiness consultancy.

 

On Thursday, Conab is expected to be a bit more bullish on the 2006/07 planting intentions, but not by much. Most private estimates have put the soy crop at around 20.5 million hectares.

 

Jaqueline Alves, a broker at Multisafra in Mato Grosso, said soy bean prices near US$7 a bushel for May onward has helped farmers in the region fix prices with local crushers.

 

May soybeans on the CBOT were trading at US$6.84 per bushel in the early afternoon Tuesday, with July at US$6.91.

 

"I suspect at least 45 percent of the crop has been sold already," she said, adding that most of that was in exchange for fertiliser and agro-chemicals. Brazil farmers usually fix prices with the major multinational soy buyers in exchange for a similar value in crop inputs.

 

Premiums for the May soybeans are currently 5 cents over the May soybean CBOT contract, down from 10 cents above on Monday. Soymeal premiums fell to 1 cent above December CBOT from 3 cents above on Friday. Soyoil premiums are 10 cents under the December CBOT soyoil contract, rising from 30 cents under on Friday, according to Alianca Corretora, a brokerage firm.

 

Paranagua Port soybeans were quoted at 33.00 reals per bag, down from 33.50 reals on Friday.

 

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soy producer.