Australian wheat forecast held at 22.8 million tones; states vary

 

 

As an annual harvest gathers pace, a forecast of national wheat production was held unchanged Friday at 22.8 million tonnes, even while Western Australia output forecast was downgraded and South Australia was upgraded.

 

Rabobank Australia held its estimate, and said there is "some potential for upward revisions if the harvest remains broadly trouble free."

 

Yield results from the harvest are mixed in areas in New South Wales that suffered dry spring conditions, while patchy storm activity has posed additional challenges in northern areas of the state, Rabobank reported in a monthly agribusiness review. The bank forecast is broadly in line with those of other industry participants.

 

The bank also reported a possibility of record crops in South Australia and Western Australia states, but the downgrading of production estimates by Western Australia Department of Agriculture and Food suggests this is unlikely.

 

Wheat production this crop year in Western Australia state is now estimated around eight million to nine million tonnes, down from nine million to 10.5 million tonnes a month ago and down from an actual 8.9 million tonnes last crop year ended March 31, 2009.

 

Total winter crop production from a harvest now gathering pace in the state is estimated around 11.5 million-12.5 million tonnes, down from 12.5 million-14 million tonnes a month ago.

 

"Yield forecasts over much of the grainbelt have declined in line with a less than favourable finish to the season during October," the department reported in its monthly Seasonal Update.

 

Western Australia typically accounts for around 40 percent of national wheat production and, with only a small domestic market, usually accounts for more than 50 percent of national wheat exports, making it a major supplier to the global trade in its own right.

 

Actual national wheat output last crop year was 21.4 million, so with annual domestic wheat demand at six million to seven million tonnes, increased output in the current crop year should make more wheat available for export to an already well-supplied global market.

 

In South Australia, new-crop wheat production including durum is estimated at 4.36 million tonnes, up 27 percent from a September estimate and up 79 percent on an actual 2.44 million tonnes harvested last crop year, the state Department of Primary Industries and Resources reported in a Crop Report issued Friday.

 

"Crops in all districts responded to the good spring rains and mild temperatures during September and October, although the rain arrived too late to significantly boost yield potential in the northern Mallee" area, the department said.

 

South Australia also is a major source of wheat exports from Australia.

 

South Australia Premier Mike Rann said total production from winter crops in the state this crop year estimated at 8.11 million tonnes, up from an actual 4.93 million tonnes last year, will be the second-largest harvest on record, behind the 2001-02 crop of 9.36 million tonnes.

 

This year bumper crop is a huge relief for farmers who battled drought and tough economic conditions in the past several crop years, Rann said in a statement.

 

"This is the crop they have been waiting for," he said, adding that crops on the sometimes marginal Eyre Peninsula look "fantastic" and the region could produce its biggest-ever crop.