November 6, 2009
Argentina's 2009-10 wheat area decreased
Post decreases Argentina's 2009-10 wheat harvested area estimate to three million hectares, due to uncertainties about the domestic price.
Post forecasts 2009-10 wheat production to reach nine million tonnes, according to a US Department of Agriculture attache report posted Thursday (Nov 5) on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.
The 2009-10 wheat crop will likely have much improved yields over last year, which was severely impacted by a major drought. Some reports indicate that the El Nino weather pattern is taking hold in the Pacific. El Nino weather patterns bring higher than average rains - and yields - to Argentina's main agricultural production areas. Furthermore, overall yields for the 2009-10 soy crop will likely be higher than most years due to a larger availability of nutrients carried over in the soil from last year due to the drought.
Post revises upward the 2008-09 wheat production and export numbers based on new export data through August 2009, which indicate that the previous year's production was higher than initially estimated. Production has been revised to nine million tonnes and exports for that crop year have been revised to six million tonnes.
Post estimates that 2009-10 corn area will reach two million hectares.
Currently, around 60 percent of the expected area has been planted. In addition, Post contacts indicate that planting perspectives for late planting in December have increased due to good results achieved in recent years. Planting seed companies indicate that their sales have been nearly three million bags (1 bag = 1 hectare) which, discounting corn for silage and losses, would indicate to a harvested area close to two million hectares.
There are many factors discouraging farmers to plant corn including, among others, profitability concerns and uncertainty about the export market. Post expects yields to be higher than historical levels due to improved moisture conditions for the 2009-10 crop year. Post tentatively forecasts corn production to reach 15 million tonnes.
