November 3, 2010

World beef trade seen to rise in 2011

The USDA expects some increase in the global trade for beef in 2011, reflecting an on-going recovery in demand across key import markets.

However, the recovery is expected to be modest due to higher prices and relatively tight global supplies.

Global beef imports are expected to rise by 3% to 7.1 million tonnes next year.

The majority of this growth centres on the rise in per capita beef consumption in Asia. Import demand in South Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnam in 2011 is expected to reach 855,000 tonnes, which would double 2006 levels.

Imports into the South Korean market are being helped by lower prices compared to local prices, increased confidence surrounding imported product following the implementation of a traceability system, and country of origin requirements for food service.

Other markets expected to expand their imports during 2011 include Egypt and Iran, following further increase in per capita consumption and lower local supplies.

Brazilian beef exports are expected to grow by 8% to 1.8 million tonnes next year, due to output expected to rise by 3% to 9.4 million tonnes. This is broadly in line with cattle herd growth at 3% to 191 million head.

Any further expansion in the cattle herd will be influenced by beef demand, locally and internationally. Meanwhile, US beef exports will be constrained due to falling cattle numbers.

The USDA expects exports from Argentina, Australia, and the EU to remain unchanged during 2011.