November 3, 2010

Brazil's 2011 soy crop sees reduction

Brazil's early 2011 soy crop is likely to drop to 66.5 million tonnes from 68.69 million tonnes in early 2010 as dry weather has disrupted sowings, Oil World forecasted Tuesday (Nov 2).

"Soybean plantings are considerably delayed nationwide but estimates vary greatly," the Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts said.

Some private forecasters were still predicting Brazil's 2011 crop at above the early 2010 harvest but Oil World said it did not share their optimism and said that some forecasters were over-estimating the country's planted area.

Rainfall had improved in Brazil's leading soy production state of Mato Grosso but recent dry weather meant some soy planting intentions will not take place.

"At least one third of the area normally planted in Mato Grosso with soybean varieties for early harvesting until January - ahead of corn plantings - will not be planted this year owing to the severe dryness prevailing in that state in September and first half of October," Oil World said.

Meanwhile, there is a fight for acres in Brazil between soy, corn and cotton following price rises for all commodities.

Brazilian soy yields in early 2011 will be below the record levels achieved in 2010, it said. The La Nina weather pattern in South America was also raising the risk of below-average rainfall in coming weeks.

Oil World has retained its forecast of Argentina's early 2011 soy crop of 52.00 million tonnes, down from 54.7 million tonnes in 2010. "Current conditions are favourable for soybeans in Argentina. However, the key factor to watch will be the weather during the growing period," it said.

Recent rain meant Argentine soy plantings were making good progress, with 2.5 million hectares completed by October 28, up from only 0.95 million hectares at the same time last year.