US corn, soy harvest drags

 

 

The US corn and soy harvest continued to be dragged out by wet central Midwest weather in the previous week, according to the government's crop progress report Monday (November 2).

 

The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress report showed that both corn and soy remain well off their normal pace, while overall winter wheat plantings move toward completion.

 

"The report did not tell us anything we did not know, as wet weather stalled field activity across the central US," Prudential Bache senior grains analyst Shawn McCambridge said.

 

The USDA said that 51 percent of the soy crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 44 percent last week but still far behind the five-year average of 87 percent. Trade expectations ranged from 53 percent  to 57 percent.

 

"The report confirmed that harvest activity stayed on a slow pace, but with an open, dry week of weather, farmers should be able to get after it and finish up soy harvests," said Don Roose, president US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Key states remain far behind schedule. Illinois' crop was only 35 percent harvested, compared to the average of 92 percent, and Iowa was 54 percent harvested, compared to the average of 96 percent.

 

Rain soaked southern areas reported minimal harvest advancement. Forty-three percent of the Arkansas crop was harvested, up 4 percentage points from the previous week, the Mississippi harvest stands at 64 percent complete, up from 61 percent last week, and the Missouri crop harvest was report 33 percent finished, up 5 percentage points from last week.

 

Farmers were only able to make minimal progress last week as yet more rain fell onto their already saturated or flooded fields in Arkansas, USDA reported. In Missouri, wet conditions from the previous week, plus heavy rains at the end of the week, limited fieldwork across the state and created some localized flooding, USDA said in its state update.

 

Meanwhile, the portion of the US crop rated good-to-excellent was 48 percent, down 2 percentage points from the prior week.

 

The USDA said that 25 percent of the corn crop was harvested, up only 5 percentage points from last week's total of 20 percent. Last year's crop, which was considered late, was 53 percent harvested at the same point in the season, and the five-year average is 71 percent.

 

The harvest progress was at the low end of expectations, as analysts were expecting progress between 25 percent and 28 percent.

 

As with the soy, key states remain way behind schedule. The crop in Illinois was only 19 percent harvested, compared to the average of 86 percent. Iowa's crop was 18 percent harvested, compared to the average of 67 percent.

 

The report met up to low harvested progress expectations, and traders and analysts will look ahead to this week's favourable harvest weather for a spike in harvest percentage, McCambridge said.

 

However, one factor that will continue to limit corn harvest operations is the drying factor, as drying capacity can't keep up with the amount of supplies that will come from the fields, forcing producers to drag out their harvest in an effort to reduce moisture levels, Roose said.

 

Ninety-four percent of the US crop was estimated mature. On average, 99 percent of the crop is mature at this late stage of the season.

 

"Maturity is still an issue for the corn crop, as 6 percent of the crop is still not mature," said Roose. "That would mean 800 million bushels are still susceptible to field losses," Roose said.

 

"It's unusual to still have crop ratings come out by November 1," he added.

 

The USDA said 67 percent of the crop was rated good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from the prior week.

   

The USDA said that 79 percent of the winter wheat crop had been planted as of Sunday, up only 3 percentage points from last week and down from the five-year average of 90 percent.

 

Hard red winter and white winter wheat plantings are nearing completion and with clear weather, farmers should be able to get the crop in quickly, said McCambridge. The soft red winter wheat crop is nearing a sense of urgency, with roughly half of the SRW acreage not planted, McCambridge said.

 

"The question is will farmers stay with their normal SRW planting intentions due to late seedings," said McCambridge. With good moisture for germination, this section of wheat will have to be watched for either fast plantings to take advantage of this week's weather or possible signs of acreage abandonment as planting windows draw to an end, he added.

 

Sixty-four percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 74 percent the prior year and the average of 75 percent.

 

Sixty-four percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from the previous week. Analysts anticipated condition ratings to hold steady or improve by 1 percentage point.

 

Crop ratings will have to be watched as well, as crops have struggled with cool weather, particularly in Arkansas, Ohio and Michigan, but they should show improvement next week with seasonal warmth and sunshine, McCambridge added.