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November 3, 2008

 

ASA Weekly: USDA detects error in latest soy acreage data

 

 

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics service (NASS) last week issued a corrected October Crop Production Report after an error was found in the data they used to prepare the report.

 

Joe Prusacki, director of the NASS Statistics Division confirmed that this is the first time NASS has ever re-issued a crop production report from a lockup situation. NASS first became aware of the problem on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 during a teleconference between NASS and Farm Service Agency (FSA) staff.

 

The FSA staff enquired about the difference in the figures of the NASS' October Crop Production report and the (CCC Form) 578 data. Prusacki said this was what NASS had and the FSA indicated that it was not the data that they had.

 

What happened was that FSA maintains their acreage data collected from the 578 form filings from producers in two locations, one in their own mainframe computer and the other was on a system called data mart.

 

The latter is a system which is more accessible for NASS and other agencies. While FSA is not sure as to how it happened, it did say that it would take two weeks to determine the exact cause, the 578 data did not get properly transferred from the FSA mainframe to the data mart system.

 

Another USDA official said the Ag Department is not sure if it was a script or batch file error that may have occurred after the reset of a computer system. The source said that USDA has a backup to obtain the accurate information.

 

NASS statisticians compiling the October Crop Production report in lockup noticed their own survey data did not comply with the increase in soy acres that was alerted by the FSA data. Prusacki said they have been using the data from the October report since 2003 without any problem as it reflects what NASS's own survey shows. Even though there were questions as to why the survey had a different result, the NASS's tracking of the FSA data indicated should be an accurate indicator.

 

NASS raised soy acreage by 2.138 million acres (865,000 hectares) and lowered corn acreage by 93,000 (37,600 hectares) in that October report. In the updated report, soy planted and harvested acreage was lowered by 1.1 million acres (445,000 hectares) from the initially released October level and USDA trimmed 1 million acres (405,000 hectares) from US corn acreage.

 

Given the late plantings and reporting of acreage and the strong soy prices that were noticed about the time the acreage reports were made, NASS were still able to rationalize what was shown in the FSA data.

 

Once the data problem was discovered, Prusacki said they had made the only decision possible and that was to come up with a corrected October Crop Production report. It was an inevitable losing situation and if NASS were to put up a corrected version of the report, they would be criticized.

 

As for precaution measures in the future, Prusacki said NASS will still conduct their queries on the data mart information and FSA would also have to run such a procedure off their mainframe system as well.

 

Global soy food market on the rise

 

Over the years, soy foods have shifted from small natural food stores to mainstream food products, supported by improvement in taste and product innovations, according to a new study titled Soy Foods: A Global Strategic Business Report, published by Global Industry Analysts, Inc.

 

The popular demand for soy foods has been hitting a high mainly due to health promoting qualities or disease prevention benefits. Increase in aged population also influences the commercials viability of soy products and depicts increased concern for major disorders such as heart diseases, primarily common between 35 and 54 years of age.

 

In addition, soy proteins are alternatively used as meat substitute that encourages aged consumers to consume soy products.

 

The global soy foods market is dominated by Asia-Pacific, with sales estimated at US$10.2 billion, as stated by Global industry Analysts. North America and Europe account for nearly 49 percent of the global soy food sales. Whole soy food market in the US is projected to reach US$4.4 billion by 2010.

 

Whole soy as a form of direct food is gaining its reputation for a healthy growth rate in Asian countries, where the soy has been a natural ingredient of daily diet for years. Western countries, on the other hand, are also showing signs of growing acceptance towards whole soy as direct food beyond crushing, though historically, they have been using it mainly in the crushed form as soy protein products and soy foods.

 

The soy oil market in Asia-Pacific is projected to register a compound annual growth rate of 7.4 percent over the period 2001-2010.

 

As soy gains popularity and soy products increase in number, soy market continues to experience many remarkable changes, according to the study. A few products keeping up with the popularity would be soy dairy products, soy snacks such as soy chips, nuts and protein bars.

 

Rising popularity of soy snacks is attributed to the consumers' demand for healthy and convenient snacks. The reports also state that companies are increasingly turning towards soy products addressing women health. Several soy supplement manufacturers introduced unique formulations, including breakfast cereals and bars market as rich sources of soy protein and consumption trends of most women in western countries have changed considerably in recent years, helping to boost soy product demand.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
 
United States 
Argentina
Brazil
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Soybeans
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
12,229
15,617
3,811
334
1,876
680
2,252
3,110
3,235
 Production
86,770
70,358
79,848
48,800
46,500
50,500
59,000
61,000
62,500
 Imports
246
272
272
2,336
3,325
3,450
108
150
160
 Crush
49,198
49,396
48,580
35,962
36,400
37,890
31,511
32,400
32,500
 Exports
30,428
31,434
27,216
12,132
13,100
14,100
23,805
25,650
27,500
 Other
4,002
1,606
4,469
1,500
1,521
1,550
2,934
2,975
3,025
 Usage
83,628
82,436
80,265
49,594
51,021
53,540
58,250
61,025
63,025
   Carryout
15,617
3,811
3,666
1,876
680
1,090
3,110
3,235
2,870
Soymeal
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
285
314
272
2,003
1,144
1,610
863
1,563
2,263
 Production
39,058
39,022
38,469
27,856
28,621
29,745
24,420
25,130
25,190
 Domestic use
31,184
30,618
30,844
617
640
696
11,520
12,155
12,550
 Net Exports
7,845
8,446
7,652
28,098
27,515
29,000
12,200
12,275
12,970
 Usage
39,029
39,064
38,496
28,715
28,155
29,696
23,720
24,430
25,520
   Carryout
314
272
245
1,144
1,610
1,659
1,563
2,263
1,933
Soybean oil
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
1,365
1,399
1,195
487
310
331
300
341
336
 Production
9,294
9,498
9,231
6,917
6,958
7,245
6,050
6,220
6,240
 Domestic use
8,420
8,368
8,324
580
995
1,170
3,550
3,895
4,048
 Net exports
840
1,334
1,043
6,514
5,942
6,035
2,459
2,330
2,190
 Usage
9,260
9,702
9,367
7,094
6,937
7,205
6,009
6,225
6,238
   Carryout
1,399
1,195
1,059
310
331
371
341
336
338
 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 23 October 2008

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

 

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

China

Soybeans

788.80

1762.00

 

Philippines

Soymeal

1.20

6.80

Hong Kong

Soybeans

55.00

0.00

 

Salvador

Soymeal

6.30

6.90

Indonesia

Soybeans

1.00

126.30

 

Taiwan

Soymeal

1.10

0.00

Israel

Soybeans

18.00

55.40

 

Turkey

Soymeal

8.00

0.00

Japan

Soybeans

27.30

369.60

 

Venezuela

Soymeal

24.00

37.20

Korea, Rep.

Soybeans

16.60

56.60

 

Canada

Soyoil

0.70

2.40

Mexico

Soybeans

50.60

481.90

 

Costa Rica

Soyoil

0.50

0.00

Taiwan

Soybeans

6.80

156.30

 

Hong Kong

Soyoil

3.00

0.00

Turkey

Soybeans

27.10

32.10

 

Saudi Arabia

Soyoil

0.50

0.00

Canada

Soymeal

16.20

74.10

 

 

 

 

 

Colombia

Soymeal

10.00

9.70

 

 

 

 

 

Dom. Rep.

Soymeal

19.00

30.00

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Guatemala

Soymeal

5.00

17.50

 

Commodity

Outstanding Sales

Accum. Exports

New Sales

Jamaica

Soymeal

6.30

10.30

 

Soybeans

10,596.90

3,651.10

1,392.00

Japan

Soymeal

11.10

3.00

 

Soymeal

1,393.40

403.10

130.10

Mexico

Soymeal

6.70

123.50

 

Soyoil

136.90

34.70

5.10


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