November 2, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Seen up on outside market support

 

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to start Monday's day session higher, garnering support from outside markets.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen starting 5 to 7 cents higher. In overnight trade, Nov. soybeans were 7 cents higher at US$9.85, and Jan. soybeans were 8 1/4 cents higher at US$9.84 3/4.

 

The market is poised to follow the overnight theme, with weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in crude oil, metals and equities providing price support, analysts said.

 

The absence of any fresh fundamental news will keep attention on outside markets, particularly the U.S. dollar. The dollar is lower in early trade, but has rebounded from overnight lows, taking some edge off futures.

 

However, upside movement is expected to be held in check, as favorable weather for the rapid advancement of harvest activity is seen keeping a lid on upward movement, a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

A technical analyst said first resistance for Nov. soybeans is seen at Friday's high of US$9.89 3/4 and then at US$10.00. First support is seen at Friday's low of US$9.68 and then at US$9.62.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix forecast said drier and increasingly warmer weather will help improve conditions for harvesting at least the next 7 or 8 days in the U.S. Midwest. After that there may be some increase in rain chances.

 

Meanwhile, in the Delta, dry weather lasts at least 7-8 days before the chance for rain returns to the region, Meteorlogix said in a morning forecast.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11 a.m. EST and its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EST.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Monday following a fresh inflow of funds to the market in anticipation of favorable government policy. The benchmark September 2010 soybean contract settled RMB16 a metric tonne higher at RMB3,690/tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended flat Monday in volatile trade, with the market staying in the red for most of the day due to fears output may outstrip exports, but higher exports in October versus September helped cap losses, said trade participants. The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended flat at MYR2,208 a metric tonne.