November 1, 2010

 

Australian wheat yield runs late as rain slows growth

Harvesting wheat in thee eastern states of Australia is running up to two weeks late, slowed by rain which is also threatening crop quality, analysts said.

 

"There is some wheat coming off, but by and large, (the main part of the harvest) is still some weeks away," analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters (ACF) Gavin Warburton said.

 

Mr Warburton expects the harvest to move into full swing in eastern states late this month, provided there is a break in the weather after extensive rains, to allow farmers to get harvesting equipment into fields.

 

More rain is forecast for this week as eastern Australia continues to experience above average rainfall associated with a La Nina weather event.

 

Although the harvest will be later than normal, eastern Australian production is likely to reach record levels due to timely rain, especially in the key grain producing state of New South Wales.

 

ACF expects the state to reap around 10 million tonnes, surpassing the record 8.6 million tonnes harvested in 1999/2000.

 

The firm is sticking with its October forecast of a 23.9 million tonnes national crop, up from 21.7 million tonnes reaped in 2009/10.

 

Usually about two-thirds of Australia's wheat is exported. The country is typically the world's fourth largest wheat exporter although it may move up after Russia's drought and export curbs.

 

Bumper eastern crops will be offset by a poor harvest in Western Australia, usually the top grain exporting state, due to a prolonged dry period.

 

Mr Warburton said ACF expects the state's wheat harvest to more than halve to around four million tonnes from last season's 8.2 million tonnes. Recent rain came too late to save parched crops.

 

Western Australia's top grain handling firm CBH Group, said it expects to receive 5.4 million tonnes of grains from winter crops, the second smallest crop in 20 years.

 

"We've received around 250,000 tonnes to-date which is about 5% of this year's estimate," a CBH spokesperson said. About 70% or 3.8 million tonnes will be wheat.

 

In the east, persistent rain is raising questions about the quality of the crop.

 

"We've seen significant quality impacts, with barley been downgraded and wheat being downgraded," agricultural commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Luke Mathews said.

 

The bank expects a national wheat harvest of 22 million tonnes, including a four million tonnes crop in Western Australia, South Australia state to harvest 4.1 million tonnes, Victoria state 3.2 million tonnes, New South Wales 9.3 million tonnes and Queensland state 1.4 million tonnes.