October 30, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Friday: Down 8-10 cents on drier weather outlook

 

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to open 8 cents to 10 cents lower Friday and expectations that drier Midwest weather will allow farmers to step up harvest.

 

In electronic trading, November soybean futures were down 8 cents to US$9.77 1/2 a bushel, and January futures were down 9 cents at US$9.78.

 

While a soggy October that kept combines parked across much of the corn and soybean belt, analysts say early November promises some relief from excessive rains. Forecasts project below-normal precipitation for most of the region next week.

 

"We'll have 10 to 14 days of excellent conditions" for harvest, said David Smoldt, vice president of operations for FCStone, LLC, in Des Moines. "Next week we'll accelerate (harvest) quite a bit."

 

"Drier weather looks likely," WSI Ag Trader said in a report.

 

Wet conditions have impeded flow of fresh soybeans into the processor pipeline, exacerbating concern over already-tight stockpiles.

 

As of Oct. 25, 44% of the U.S. soybean crop was harvested, up from 30% the previous week but below the five-year average of 80%.

 

Soybean harvest progress, in percentage terms, will probably be in the "low 60s" by Sunday, Smoldt estimated. The five-year average for that time of year is about 85%, he said.

 

Increased harvest pressure may push January soybeans near US$9.35 to US$9.40 a bushel, Smoldt said.

 

Smoldt said outside markets may also pressure the soy complex Friday, with crude oil prices lower and the dollar firmer.