October 31, 2005
ASA Weekly: Indonesia bans Brazilian soymeal; Brazil's 2005-06 crop seen at 57.1 million tonnes
Indonesia bans Brazilian soymeal
Indonesia has announced a ban on imports of Brazilian soymeal and other raw materials due to concerns over FMD.
The restrictions, which also cover products as diverse as machinery and medicines, were announced as Brazil confirmed further outbreaks of FMD in the key beef-exporting state of Mato Grosso do Sul.
The measure has been heavily criticised by Brazilian Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues, on the grounds that there is no known link between many of the banned products and any possible FMD risk. "This is an inappropriate and exaggerated reaction on Indonesia's part," he said.
Indonesia took a similar measure last year, after an outbreak of FMD in an isolated region of northern Brazil, where no beef is produced for export.
The Department of Sanitary Affairs at Brazil's foreign relations ministry said it plans to challenge the restrictions on the grounds that they violate world trade rules.
"We are going to respond to Indonesia and question the decision from the point of view of agreements on sanitary and phytosanitary measures at the WTO," said department head, Odilson Ribeiro.
Brazil's 2005-06 crop seen at 57.1 million tonnes
The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (ABIOVE) placed its latest estimate for the 2005-06 soy crop at 57.1 million tonnes. Soymeal production could reach 22.3 million tonnes and soyoil output is seen at 5.5 million tonnes next year, according to ABIOVE.
Meanwhile, the soybean export estimate for the 2006-07 is expected to be 24.5 million. Soymeal exports could be 12.8 million tonnes in 2006-07, which would be considerably down from the 13.3 million tonnes exported last year. Exports for the year estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, ABIOVE said.
In related news, ABIOVE also reported that Brazil's soybean crush totalled 2.067 million tonnes in September, an increase from 2.023 million tonnes in August. The September crush produced 1.59 million tonnes of soymeal and 402,000 tonnes of soyoil. Soy crushers have bought 33.2 million tonnes of the 51.4 million tonnes produced this year, according to ABIOVE.
Soybean stocks for the month of September are forecast by ABIOVE to be 5.89 million tonnes, while soymeal stocks should end the month at 1.19 million tonnes. For the 2005-06, the soy industry will crush an estimated 28.6 million tonnes, down from 28.9 million tonnes in 2004-05, ABIOVE said.
High barge and ocean freight rates in US expected through 2005
US barge rates have been strong for the past two years for a shrinking fleet of barges, increased up-bound movements of cargo and periodic unscheduled closures at lock and dam facilities or for low navigation problems related to low or high water conditions.
Barge rates are expected to fall further over the next three months, however will maintain record high levels over these months. However, recently rates have dropped as more empty barges have become available and as the reality of the navigation season will wind down over the next 6-weeks on the Upper Mississippi River.
US barge movements on the other hand have been slow to develop because of the generally high freight rates, weak basis values in the interior and a desire among farmers and shippers to hold grain rather than move it.
The cost to move commodities by dry bulk vessel from the US has turned higher on improved demand for bulk commodities and seasonal tendencies. Ocean freight has a seasonal tendency to be higher during the fourth quarter, and analysts believe it could remain firm over the remaining months of 2005.
US demand for dry bulk vessels has support from minerals, coal, and iron ore, but with what appears to be a strong order book, rates going into 2006 will be under pressure.
|
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
US |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
|
|
Apr-03 |
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
Jul-06 |
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
Jul-06 |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
8,029 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
3,670 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
934 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
77,740 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
60,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
136 |
108 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,267 |
45,858 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
28,500 |
29,172 |
29,000 |
31,583 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
29,801 |
30,345 |
6,500 |
9,311 |
9,800 |
19,571 |
20,300 |
23,200 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
4,582 |
4,095 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
80,650 |
80,298 |
33,124 |
37,906 |
40,310 |
51,893 |
52,622 |
58,358 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
8,029 |
5,579 |
2,046 |
3,670 |
2,845 |
2,086 |
934 |
2,776 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
236 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
532 |
300 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,863 |
36,355 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
22,515 |
22,920 |
22,852 |
24,792 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,300 |
30,708 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,950 |
9,450 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,518 |
5,656 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
21,704 |
14,367 |
14,134 |
15,192 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,818 |
36,364 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
22,654 |
23,151 |
23,084 |
24,642 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
236 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
532 |
300 |
450 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
781 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
120 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,764 |
8,607 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
5,130 |
5,258 |
5,220 |
5,685 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
624 |
651 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
5,000 |
2,605 |
2,408 |
2,735 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,471 |
8,657 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
5,155 |
5,315 |
5,193 |
5,655 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
781 |
731 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
120 |
150 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 20 October 2005 | ||||||||
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
36.7 |
36.7 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
2.3 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
347.2 |
1397.8 |
|
Hungary |
Soymeal |
1 |
0 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
0.5 |
0 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
2.9 |
2.6 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
14.2 |
35.4 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
5.5 |
5.9 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
35 |
57.6 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
France |
Soybeans |
27.5 |
0 |
|
Malaysia |
Soymeal |
1.5 |
0 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
128.9 |
278.9 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
102.1 |
75.2 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
85.7 |
243.9 |
|
OPAC Is. |
Soymeal |
0.6 |
1.1 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
52.5 |
0 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.6 |
8.8 |
|
Malaysia |
Soybeans |
0.7 |
24.5 |
|
Australia |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
64.4 |
512.9 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
67.2 |
105.7 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1.1 |
3 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
0.2 |
8.2 |
|
Cuba |
Soyoil |
5 |
0 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
70 |
150.1 |
|
UAE |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
14.5 |
35.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australia |
Soymeal |
25 |
0 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
33.3 |
66.7 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
13.3 |
2.7 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
0.9 |
0 |
|
Soybeans |
5,922.70 |
3,037.90 |
841.9 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
0.4 |
12.9 |
|
Soymeal |
1,158.10 |
266.8 |
194.1 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
6.6 |
|
Soyoil |
76.4 |
12 |
88.4 |
