October 31, 2005

 

CBOT Corn Outlook on Monday: Flat, seen continuing recent pattern

  

 

Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to begin Monday's open outcry session steady, continuing the recent pattern as the market searches for fresh inputs while producers continue to harvest the crop.

 

In overnight e-CBOT trading, December corn edged 1/4 cent lower to US$1.96 3/4 cents per bushel, March corn was unchanged at US$2.10 1/2 per bushel, and May corn slipped 1/4 cent to US$2.19 per bushel.

 

"The market is still scratching its way lower every day with little in the way if fresh news to change the tone," a floor trader said. The harvest should have gone well over the weekend and it looks like mostly favorable weather for the week ahead, he added.

 

Good harvest weather is expected across much of the U.S. Midwest for much of this week after scattered rains move through the central portion of the region today and tomorrow, according to DTN Meteorlogix weather.

 

Monday afternoon at 15:00 CDT, (2100 GMT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release the weekly crop progress report with trader's expecting the corn harvest at 80% complete.

 

On technical charts, technical analyst Jim Wyckoff pegs first resistance for December corn at US$1.98 1/4 and then at US$2.00, this week's high. He sets first support at US$1.96 3/4, the contract low and then at US$1.95.

 

Corn basis bids were mixed Monday morning. Central Ill. was unchanged at 10 cents under December, while St. Louis was up 7 cents at 8 cents over December.

 

Non-commercial traders were net short 19,417 corn futures and options on futures contracts as of Oct. 25, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported Friday.

 

In other corn news, premiums of corn and wheat delivered to Asia are expected little changed in the week ahead as the current premiums of ocean freight rates remain firm, trade sources said.

 

China will auction 447,000 metric tonnes of old imported wheat reserves on Nov. 4 sources said. The wheat was mainly imported from Canada in 1999-2001 and stored as state reserves.

 

Corn futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Monday with the most-active January contract down RMB4/tonne at RMB1,230/tonne.

 

This morning at 10:00 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT), the USDA is scheduled to release the weekly export inspections report. Last week, 39.761 million bushels of corn were inspected for export.