October 29, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Seen up, consolidating on outside support

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected to start Thursday's day session higher, consolidating recent declines on supportive outside market influences.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen starting 3 to 5 cents higher. In overnight trade, Nov soybeans were 4 3/4 cents higher at US$9.73 1/4, and Jan soybeans were 4 1/2 cents higher at US$9.75.

 

A weaker U.S. dollar and generally higher commodity markets are supportive influences on prices, with consolidation expected after the market satisfied some near-term downside technical objectives Wednesday, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with Grainanalyst.com.

 

The market is also finding some support from lingering concerns about field losses in the Delta, as that region will once again get hit with some heavy rains through Friday.

 

Favorable crop harvesting conditions on tap for next week across the corn-belt will cap upside potential, but solid underlying demand and a supportive revision to September soyoil stocks will buoy prices, analysts said.

 

A technical analyst said first resistance for November soybeans is seen at Wednesday's high of US$9.78 1/2 and then at US$9.93 1/2. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of US$9.59 1/4 and then at US$9.50.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix forecast said rain and thunderstorms should further delay the summer crop harvests in the Midwest. This is especially the case in the southern and eastern belt where rain so far this week has been heavier and where rain during the next 24-48 hours looks heavier as well. The pattern beyond this rain system looks to be much more favorable for fall field work, including harvesting of summer crops.

 

In the Delta, rains and heavy thunderstorms appear likely for both Thursday and Friday, further delaying summer crop harvests.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales for the 2009-10 marketing year were a net 691,000 metric tonnes for the week ended Oct. 22. The primary buyer was China with 437,000 tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 400,000 and 750,000 metric tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 179,400 tonnes. Trade estimates ranged from 150,000 to 250,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were 9,200 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 10,000 and 25,000 tonnes.

 

The U.S. Census Bureau Thursday revised its August soyoil stocks estimate to 2.739 billion pounds, down from its preliminary estimate of 2.880 billion pounds, according to the Census Bureau's Fats and Oils stocks report.

 

First notice day for November soybean futures in Friday, Oct. 30.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Thursday, tracking an overnight fall on CBOT. The benchmark September 2010 soybean contract settled RMB30 a metric tonne lower at RMB3,653/tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rebounded Thursday, led by gains in commodities markets and due to projections of a marginal rise in export numbers, said trade participants. The January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR37 or 1.7% higher at MYR2,189 a metric tonne.