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October 30, 2008

 

Brazil's corn crop forecast of 57.5 million tonnes for 2007/08

 
 
Despite June's situation in the southern state of Parana, Brazil is expected to have a record corn crop of 57.5 million tonnes for this fiscal year (2007/08).

 

Even with the ongoing high international corn prices, area is expected to increase minimally in the coming year, with any forms of expansion occurring in the safrinha (second) crop.

 

In the last year, Brazil seems to have found its current equipoise for area planted with particular crops and no strong shifts between crops are expected. Even though international prices have escalated significantly, so has the cost of production.

 

The average cost of transportation has increased 50 percent in the last year and according to some accounts, the cost of production has nearly doubled with the majority of this escalation due to rising price of fertlisers.

 

In addition, strong environmental restrictions and the need for consistent environmental regulations and strong property rights further hinder such expansion.

 

Brazil has lowered its 2007/08 marketing year (March 2008 / February 2009) export forecast to 9 million tonnes, predominantly due to the current strong domestic demand which is diverting corn from export channels and resulting in defaults in some contracts.

 

Last year, the domestic poultry and pork producers were caught by surprise by the strong surge in corn exports and now they are willing to pay the amount to ensure they have the inputs that is needed. However, Brazil could export more if the international demand were to increase substantially.
 
corn

 

Brazil

Corn

 

2006

Revised

2007

Estimate

2008

Forecast

UOM

 

USDA Official [Old]

Post Estimate
[new]

USDA Official [Old]

Post Estimate
[new]

USDA Official [Old]

Post Estimate
[new]

 

Market Year Begin

 

03/2007

 

03/2008

 

03/2009

MM/YYYY

Area Harvested

14000

14055

14700

14750

15000

15000

(1000 HA)

Beginning Stocks

3015

3015

3579

3771

8329

10521

(1000 MT)

Production

51000

51370

57500

57500

57000

57250

(1000 MT)

TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports

1400

1221

750

750

500

600

(1000 MT)

Oct-Sep Imports

1204

1087

950

1000

500

700

(1000 MT)

Oct-Sep Import U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

(1000 MT)

TOTAL SUPPLY

55415

55606

61829

62021

65829

68371

(1000 MT)

TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports

10836

10835

11000

9000

11000

9000

(1000 MT)

Oct-Sep Exports

8071

8070

10500

10500

12000

9000

(1000 MT)

Feed Dom. Consumption

34500

34500

36000

36000

38000

38000

(1000 MT)

TOTAL Dom. Consumption

41000

41000

42500

42500

45000

45000

(1000 MT)

Ending Stocks

3579

3771

8329

10521

9829

14371

(1000 MT)

TOTAL DISTRIBUTION

55415

55606

61829

62021

65829

68371

(1000 MT)

 

For the full USDA report, please click here

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