In the year 2025: World dairy market trends and transformations
By Eric J. Brooks
While dairy farmers are still patiently waiting for the market to recover from the previous boom's excesses, the industry's supply, demand and geographic fundamentals are gradually changing. Powered by annual increases of 3.5% in South Asia, developing country consumption of dairy products is rising by an FAO -estimated 2.9% annually, which is at least 0.5% faster than the more mature Chinese market’s fresh dairy CAGR.
And with growth shifting to immature, less sophisticated markets, the growth rate of industrial dairy goods like WMP in developed and developing countries will be 31% and 69%, respectively, decelerating at annual rates of 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively.
The deceleration in demand growth for internationally traded dairy goods in our decade is also impacting the world's top dairy exporters. With their own domestic markets flat and world demand growth falling off, the combined dairy output of New Zealand, Australia, America and the EU is rising by only 1.2%. In particular, by 2025, combined milk output of Australia and New Zealand will have risen by only 4.8 million tonnes - less than India’s annual output increase over the next decade.
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