October 28, 2005

 

CBOT Corn Outlook on Friday: Flat, waiting for fresh inputs

 

 

Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to begin Friday's open outcry session in line with Thursday's closing prices as the market continues its recent pattern in the continued absence of fresh news, sources said.

 

In overnight e-CBOT trading, December corn finished unchanged at $1.97 3/4 cents per bushel, March corn rose 1/4 cent to $2.11 1/2 per bushel, and May corn ended unchanged at $2.20 cents per bushel.

 

"The corn market is still anchored to the large supply," said Don Roose, president of US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. In addition, the export sales pace is weak with sales off 11% from a year ago at this time, and competition remains tough as China continues to export corn, he added.

 

China reported Friday morning that it had expected over 540,000 metric tonnes of corn during September, underscoring the competitive market for corn exports, sources said.

 

Favorable harvest weather is expected across much of the U.S. Midwest over the weekend according to DTN Meteorlogix weather. Through Sunday Oct. 23, 65% of the U.S. corn crop was reported harvested by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

 

On technical charts, technical analyst Jim Wyckoff sets first resistance for December corn at $2.00 and then at $2.01 1/2, this week's high. He pegs first support at $1.97 1/2, the contract low and then at $1.95.

 

Corn basis bids were mixed Friday morning. Central Ill. was unchanged at 10 cents under December, while St. Louis was down 5 cents at 1 cent over December.

 

In other corn news, cash corn prices were slightly weaker in Argentina through Thursday, sources said. Producers in Argentina had planted 45.8% of the 2005-06 corn crop through Saturday, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. The exchange expects 2005-06 corn production at 17.5 million metric tonnes, off from 19.5 million produced last year, while the USDA estimates 2005-06 output at 18.0 million metric tonnes.

 

Through Oct. 21, Argentina had sold almost 11.4 million metric tonnes of 2004-05 corn for export, up from 8.775 million the previous year, the Agriculture Secretariat reported.

 

Ukraine harvested 5.06 million metric tonnes of corn through Oct. 27 from 1.23 million hectares, 71% of the area to be harvested, the agriculture ministry reported Friday.

 

Corn futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange settled mostly lower Friday with the most-active January contract unchanged at RMB1,230/tonne.