October 26, 2009

US commercial pork production set a new record for the month of September, as was expected, making it back-to-back months to do so.

 

The US Department of Agriculture reported the pork output for last month at 2.001 billion pounds, up 25 million pounds from the previous high of 1.976 billion hit a year ago.

 

Ron Plain, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, had predicted earlier that September pork output would top the 2008 figure.

 

Slaughter in September was down nearly 34,000 head from a year ago but that was offset by heavier live and carcass weights, according to USDA data. The average live weight was up about four pounds, which resulted in roughly three more pounds per carcass.

The number of weekdays and Saturdays in the month was the same as last year, at 22 and four, respectively.

 

Following new highs in pork production in August and September, output for October is expected to be down from a year ago. Weekly slaughter rates during the first half of the month fell short of a year ago by about 150,000 head. This week's slaughter, however, was up 30,000 head, but early predictions for next week's slaughter indicate a shortfall from last year by about that same amount.

 

In addition, October this year has 22 weekdays and five Saturdays, compared with 23 weekdays and five Saturdays last year. Just the one less weekday with one more Saturday would mean a reduction of 250,000 to 280,000 head for the month, versus last year.

The smaller slaughter figures and a narrowing of the year-on-year spread in hog weights in recent weeks could pull the monthly pork production down by 2 percent to 2.5 percent from the October 2008 output.

 

A reduction in production should be supportive for hog and wholesale pork prices into November but that could be offset by a seasonal dip in domestic demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

Last week's cattle slaughter was estimated at 646,000 head, compared with 629,000 a week ago and 645,000 a year ago. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

 

The week's hog slaughter estimate was 2.323 million head, compared with 2.289 million a week ago and 2.293 million a year ago. For the year, hog slaughter is off 2.9 percent.

 

The USDA estimated total beef, pork and lamb production for the week at 990.8 million pounds. Last week's output was 970.2 million pounds, and the year-ago figure was 973.0 million pounds. Year-to-date combined meat output is down 2.7 percent.

 

Broiler/fryer slaughter for the week was estimated at 161.484 million head, compared with 160.36 million a week ago and 163.319 million a year ago.