October 26, 2004

Abiove Sees Brazil's 2004 Soy Complex Exports at $10.105 Billion

Brazil's 2004 soy complex export revenue should total $10.105 billion, up 2.5% on the $9.766 billion forecast of September, the Brazilian Oilseeds Association (Abiove) announced Monday.

This latest forecast is the highest since the $10.484 billion of May, after which forecasts began to take into account lower demand from China and falling international prices.

The lowest forecast came in July, at $9.7 billion.

In March, Abiove forecast a $11.25 billion soy complex export revenue to be taken by Brazil in 2004.

The October improvement to recent forecasts is due to higher expectations about average international prices for soybeans and soy meal.

Abiove says the average price for soybeans should be $230/ton against $220/t in September (+4.5%). The average soy oil price is seen holding at $550/t.

The readjustments mean that in 2004 Brazil's soybean export revenue should total $5.4 billion, meal $3.3 billion and oil $1.2 billion.

Abiove has maintained its 2005 soy complex export revenue forecast at $9.34 billion on a higher volume exported, but at lower prices.

The association forecasts average prices in 2005 at $220/t for soybeans, $180/t for soy meal and $500/t for soy oil.

In the case of soybeans and meal, prices are seen falling an average 20% compared with 2004, while for soy oil there should be a 10% price drop.