October 25, 2013

 

Brazil's soy exports may rise further in 2013-14

 

 

Fuelled by a weaker corn harvest freeing up much-coveted logistical capacity, Brazil's soy exports may prove even larger than expected in 2013-14, increasing the country's lead over the US.

 

The USDA's Brasilia bureau's forecast was pegged at a record 45.0 million tonnes for the South American country's soy exports in 2013-14.

 

According to the bureau, the forecast with an increase of 2.5 million tonnes on-year is 2.0 million tonnes higher than the official USDA estimate, and the forecast from the International Grains Council.

 

The said increase would cement Brazil's place as the top soy exporter, a title it gained in 2012-13, although the USDA's forecast for US soy shipments of 37.3 million tonnes this season may be liable to an upgrade, given signs of decent export demand and strong reports from the US harvest.

 

The bureau concurred with the official USDA number, of a record 88.0 million tonnes, for the 2013-14 Brazilian harvest, with the increase of some 8% on-year attributed to use of more advanced seed as well as a rise of 1.4 million hectares in plantings.

 

Brazilian farmers will increase by five points to 92-93% the proportion of seed from genetically modified varieties, following some further approvals in June by China, the top importer of the oilseed.

 

However, the bureau was more generous on export prospects than Washington thanks to ideas of a drop in corn production, which will free up more of Brazil's creaking export infrastructure for soy.

 

"With export infrastructure pressure lessened by a reduced overall corn crop, ports and trucks will be able to lengthen the soy export season and move more soy and derivatives into the international market," the bureau said.

 

The Vila do Conde port in Bel閙, which is forecast to export three million tonnes, will also boost export potential. The onset of rains in Brazil, while hampering the sugar cane harvest, as highlighted by Unica this week, have boosted farmers' willingness to press on with soy sowings after a slow start, when dryness spurred crop concerns.

 

Brazilian farmers had planted 19% of soy, compared with 20% a year before, according to AgRural.

 

The preference by producers for soy rather than corn, as illustrated by farming giant SLC Agricola, has reached such proportions that many growers are now considering second-crop soy.

 

Typically, farmers in states such as Mato Grosso and Parana plant corn on land vacated by the soy harvest, which occurs early in the calendar year.

 

Brazilian authorities operate a no-soy period from the harvest until mid-September, in an effort to stem the risk of the spread of disease and crop failures.