October 25, 2010

Indian soy production prospects improve in September

India's 2010-11 soy production estimates for the month of September are forecast at 9.2 million tonnes, up 0.4 million or 5% from August estimates, according to USDA statistics.

Area crop is forecast at 9.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 6 % from last month, but down 0.1 million or 1% from last year.

The yield is forecast at 0.97 tonnes per hectare, down 1% from last month, but up 6% from last year. The 2010 monsoon rainfall for the entire country was 4% above normal with central India (the major soy region) receiving 6% above normal rains for the period between June and September.

The majority of soy growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra received adequate to excess rainfall. There were a few isolated regions of drier-than-normal conditions in northern Madhya Pradesh and in southern Rajasthan, which contributed to a slightly lower planted area compared to last year.

End-of-September sowing progress reports indicate sown areas at approximately 9.3 million hectares compared to 9.5 hectares for the corresponding period last year.

Increased plantings and excellent crop conditions are reported in Maharashtra and Karnataka. In general, the crop is at advanced podding to harvesting stages and market arrivals are expected to pick up in mid-October

India's soy are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rain-fed conditions. The ideal sowing window is early to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon.

Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is limited by water reserves and equipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53%), Maharashtra (34%), and Rajasthan (8%).