October 25, 2004

Brazil's Safras Lowers 2004-05 Soy Crop View To 63.2 Million MT

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean production will total 63.2 million metric tons, according to the latest estimate by local agricultural consultants Safras e Mercado Friday.
 
The estimate was lowered from 66.6 million tons in July as farmers will reduce investments in the crop due to slumping prices and rising fertilizer and herbicide costs.
 
However, output is seen much higher than the 49.9 million tons produced last year from a crop hit by drought and the Asian rust fungus.
 
The forecast is now considerably lower than the 66 million tons predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week.
 
With profit margins promising to be slim next year, Safras lowered its planted area figure to 22.47 million hectares from 23.09 million hectares predicted in July.
 
The figure remains 6% higher than the 21.29 million hectares cultivated this year.
 
The foundation of production growth this season will be a 20% recovery in average yields, said the report. In 2004-05, productivity is seen reaching 2,810 kilograms per hectare compared with 2,344 kg/hectare last year.
 
However, a lack of crop care prompted Safras to reduce its yield forecast from 2,882 kilograms per hectares last year.
 
The top-producing state will be Mato Grosso, where output is pegged to rise 11% on the year to 16.5 million tons. Parana, the No. 2 state, is expected to turn out 12.3 million tons, up 43% on the drought-hit 2003-04 crop. The southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul is forecast to produce 10.3 million tons, up 84% from last year as the region recovers from last year's drought.