October 24, 2007

 

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn harvest still ahead of normal

 

 

The US corn harvest remained ahead of schedule last week, while the soy harvest slipped a bit behind average, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (October 22) in its weekly crop progress report.

 

The updated data on the harvests of both crops was unsurprising, an analyst said. A modest slowdown in activity was expected after unfavourable weather hit Midwestern growing areas, he said.

 

Winter wheat planting and emergence, meanwhile, continued to lag in the Plains, according to the USDA.

 

Corn

 

The USDA said 60 percent of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, above the 51 percent harvested at the same time last year and the five-year average of 55 percent. Analysts had expected the harvest to be 58 percent to 65 percent complete.

 

In Illinois, 92 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 72 percent last year and the five-year average of 75 percent. In Iowa, 41 percent of the harvest was complete, down from the 46 percent reported last year and the five-year average of 49 percent. Indiana's crop was 69 percent harvested, up from the 36 percent last year and the average of 49 percent.

 

Nebraska's crop was 44 percent harvested, above the 36 percent harvest in 2006 and just below the average of 45 percent. Minnesota's corn harvest was 52 percent finished, above the 49 percent harvested last year and the average of 45 percent.

 

Wet weather hit some areas of the Midwest last week, so corn and soy industry members expected to see some harvest delays, said Don Roose, president of US Commodities.

 

"It was a slow week last week," he said. "We all knew that, so we weren't expecting a lot of progress."

 

The US weather pattern offers a better outlook for corn and soy harvest in the Midwest this week, especially the western half of the region, DTN Meteorlogix said in a forecast. The private weather firm predicts rainfall of up to 1 1/2 inches in the Delta and 1 inch over the eastern Midwest this week.

 

"However, the hard-hit rain areas of the western Midwest have a drier weather outlook," Meteorlogix said. "This trend will allow harvest conditions to improve through the western Midwest."

 

Soy

 

The USDA reported that 75 percent of the US crop was harvested as of Sunday, down from the 76 percent harvested last year and the five-year average of 78 percent. Analysts had expected the harvest to be 72 percent to 77 percent complete.

 

In Iowa, 76 percent of the crop has been harvested, compared to 90 percent at the same time last year and the average of 93 percent. In Illinois, 93 percent of the crop has been harvested, above the 81 percent finished last year and the average of 84 percent.

 

"I think that is right in line with what we were looking for," Roose said about the progress.

 

In Minnesota, 86 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 98 percent last year and the average of 89 percent. In Indiana, the harvest was 82 percent complete, compared to 57 percent in 2006 and the average of 75 percent.

 

Harvest progress is expected to pick up this week, with clearer weather on the horizon, Roose said. Producers "can move pretty fast" to make up for any lost time when it comes to harvesting, he said.

 

The crop data should not have any impact on the Chicago Board of Trade corn and soy markets because harvest progress numbers were within trade estimates, Roose said.

 

Winter wheat

 

The USDA reported that 82 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, below the 84 percent seeded in 2006 and the five-year average of 84 percent.

 

Planting in hard red winter wheat areas of the Plains has lagged the average all fall but the gap appears to be narrowing, analysts said. The update on seeding progress was not surprising and should not have a major impact on wheat futures markets, said Tom Leffler, owner of Leffler Commodities.

 

In Kansas, 83 percent of the wheat has been planted as of Sunday, compared to 92 percent last year and the average of 89 percent. In Oklahoma, 78 percent of the crop has been seeded, compared to 84 percent last year and the average of 87.

 

"I think it'll keep narrowing up," Leffler said about the seeding deficit. "You had some guys who were waiting for moisture, and the moisture came now. I think we'll eventually get it all into the ground."

 

Planting remained ahead of schedule in states that grow soft red winter wheat. Illinois producers planted 91 percent of their crop, compared to 80 percent in 2006 and the average of 74 percent. In Ohio, 94 percent of the crop was seeded, above the 55 percent planted last year and the five-year average of 76 percent.

 

The USDA reported that 57 percent of the winter wheat crop has emerged, below the 62 percent in 2006 and the average of 64 percent. In Kansas, 57 percent of the crop has emerged, compared to the average of 68 percent. In Oklahoma, 49 percent of the crop has emerged compared to the average of 71 percent.