October 24, 2005

 

Brazil's summer 2005-06 corn, soy area seen down

 

 

Brazil agricultural consulting firm AgroConsult of Santa Catarina said Friday that the summer 2005-06 crop-planting area for corn, cotton, rice and soy has been reduced by 2.801 million hectares to 37,403 million hectares.

 

Soy output for 2005-06 is expected to be 52.7 million tonnes.

 

This is AgroConsult's second crop estimate for this year. Total planting area is just 0.6 percent above its first projection in September.

 

The AgroConsult estimate, while reflecting a drop in area on the year, was revised upward from the last estimate of 37,168 hectares.

 

The slight revision upward is due to an increase in soy plantings. AgroConsult estimates a total 2005-06 planted area of 45.4 million hectares, weather permitting, compared to its September estimate of 45.534 million hectares.

 

 

Corn
 

Falling domestic prices during the planting season and the recent drop in futures prices have led AgroConsult to revise its estimates downward to 2.65 million hectares, 3.2 percent below its first estimate. Indicators suggest that corn could suffer because of recent discoveries of foot-and-mouth disease in Mato Grosso do Sul and concern over avian flu, which so far has not stricken Brazil's poultry producers.

 

 

Soy
 

Total planted area is 21.29 million hectares so far with an estimated production of 52.72 million tonnes, in line with market estimates. Fertilizer deliveries from June to December 2005 should be 10.7 percent less than the same period last year.

 

AgroConsult includes other seed factors in the mix, such as lower-quality seed. Lower fungicide delivery this year could also signify a larger reduction in production, especially if Asian rust is found in the fields. Producers will not have the same conditions to control the disease as they had in the 2003-04 harvest.

 

"Last year agro-toxin sales were way up. Farmers were already buying to protect their crop. This year, that's not the case," said Andre de Bastiani of AgroConsult. "So last year, when they were applying preventative measures or actually had to kill the rust on the plant, they were all set because they had the product in stock. We are not seeing that happening now. Farmers are not betting as much on this year's crop and are spending conservatively."