October 21, 2013

Russia's October grain export to decline on weaker demand

Due to rising competition with other exporters and weaker demand from traditional customers, Russia is expected to cut grain exports in October to between 2.6 million and 2.7 million tonnes.

Grain prices in Russia are being supported in the 2013-14 season by risks related to harvesting that has yet to be completed, a lack of high quality wheat and a government restocking plan.

"Exports are declining but still remain high," SovEcon's agricultural analysts said. The country exported 2.93 million tonnes of grain, including pulses and flour, in September, down from 3.53 million in August. The most significant decrease in September was in wheat, shipments of which declined to 2.39 million tonnes from 3.04 million in August.

Between the start of the 2013-14 season on July 1 and the end of September, Russia exported 7.5 million tonnes of wheat. Turkey remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat in September, for the third month in a row. However, its share in Russia's wheat exports decreased slightly to 18.2% from 18.7% in July-September last year.

The share of shipment to Egypt, formerly the largest buyer of Russian wheat, declined more significantly to 13.1% in July-September this year from 24.3% a year ago. The need to find other markets forced Russian wheat exporters to resume supplies to Bangladesh and Pakistan and to start shipping to South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique and Nigeria.

The structure of Russian shipments was also changed by a rising number of buyers. The Black Sea port of Novorossiisk remained the largest port for grain supplies outside Russia, but its share declined to 25.9% in July-September from 30.6% a year ago. Its volumes were taken by the shallow-water ports of the Azov Sea and by the deep-water port of Taman, SovEcon added. Due to a poor harvest, barley exports are expected to decline further in October, while corn shipments are expected to rise to 200,000 tonnes in October from 106,000 tonnes in September as the new harvest approaches the market.