October 21, 2004

 

Argentina's 2004-05 Soy Area Seen At 14.2 Million Hectares

 

Argentina's farmers will probably plant 14.2 million hectares of 2004-05 soybeans, according to the Agriculture Secretariat on Wednesday.

 

This would put planted area in line with that of the previous year, when it also totaled 14.226 million hectares.

 

The Secretariat's estimate goes against some local analysts' expectations, which have been more optimistic. However, the Secretariat said lower soybean prices and an extended drought will lead farmers to plant less than previously expected. Farmers are also expected to plant less soy in the country's main growing region, the Secretariat said, without saying exactly why.

 

"Area is down in La Pampa, Cordoba, Chaco and Santiago del Estero," the Secretariat said. "This decline will not be compensated for by an increase in area in Entre Rios and other non-Pampas region provinces."

 

In 2003-04, Argentina produced 32 million metric tons of soybeans, according to Secretariat data. This forecast remains below the latest estimate by the US Department of Agriculture, which put 2003-04 soybean output at 34 million tons.

 

The Secretariat's estimate puts production down 8% from 2002-03, when Argentina produced 34.8 million tons.

 

The USDA has forecast 2004-05 soybean production at 39 million tons and soy area at 14.2 million hectares.
 
WHEAT
 
Meanwhile, farmers likely planted 6.24 million hectares of 2004-05 wheat, the Secretariat estimated. This estimate is up slightly from last month's forecast, which had put area at 6.2 million hectares.

 

"This increase is based on a larger surface area planted in northern, southeastern and southwestern parts of Buenos Aires (Province), which surpasses the decline in coverage seen for center-north parts of the country," the Secretariat said.

 

Farmers have already begun collecting the 2004-05 crop, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange. The Secretariat has not yet commented on this. Neither has provided a forecast for 2004-05 output.

 

Argentine farmers produced 14.53 million metric tons of wheat in 2003-04, according to the Secretariat. The USDA has forecast Argentina's 2004-05 wheat production at 14.5 million tons.

 

Argentine wheat is normally planted between May and August. The crop is usually collected between October and January.

 

CORN
 
The Secretariat also raised its estimate for planted area of 2004-05 corn. The Secretariat now sees area at 3.24 million hectares, up from 3.08 million hectares a month ago. The latest forecast puts expected area up 13.3% from 2003-04, according to the Secretariat.

 

The increase is due to more corn being planted in center parts of Buenos Aires and eastern parts of Cordoba, Chaco, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman. Around 30% of the total estimated area has already been planted, the Secretariat said.

 

Planted area totaled 2.86 million hectares in 2003-04. The Secretariat said farmers are planting more corn in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, San Luis, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman.

 

The Secretariat kept its estimate for 2003-04 corn production at 13 million tons, down from 15.04 million in 2002-03.

 

Of the 2.86 million hectares planted in 2003-04, some 2.07 million were dedicated to commercial corn while the rest was used as animal feed.
 
The USDA has forecast 2004-05 corn output at 15.5 million tons.