The US market continues to have a high demand for soy throughout the rest of this year and into the next, despite record soy yields.

Greater demand for soy from China is now considered a given, and the USDA is estimating 2010-11 US soy exports of 1.5 billion bushels.

The 2009 marketing year represented the fourth consecutive record year for exports, with US whole soy exports reaching 1.45 billion bushels. China purchased 825 million bushels of 2009 US soy.

Exports are expected to use 44% of the US soy crop, with domestic crush using 48% of the 2010 crop. International customers have already purchased 540 million bushels of 2010 soy, with China remaining as the lead buyer at 330 million bushels.

"This follows an increasing trend in the amount of developing countries whose economies have evolved and their populations have begun to demand a growing amount of protein in their diets that these countries cannot supply," said Jim Call, chairman of USB International Marketing.

The 2010 US soy carryout was forecast at 265 million bushels in October - down 85 million bushels from the September forecast of 350 million bushels.

On the CME Group exchange, soy on October 15 traded with November at US$11.85, January at US$11.95, March at US$12.03, May at US$12.04 one-half, July at US$12.09, and August at US$11.96 per bushel.

Compared with the futures on October 1, November was US$0.85  higher, January was US$0.87 cents higher, March was US$0.86 cents higher, May was US$0.86 one-half higher, July was US$0.88 higher and August was US$0.82 one-half higher.
 

According to the CME Group website, the November soy future posted a new two-year high before moving lower on October 15. The USDA announced weekly export sales of 1.1 million metric tonnes (40.4 million bushels).

"As tight as the carryout situation is in corn, it is not that bad in soy, or surprisingly, in wheat," said Usset.

At one elevator in western Minnesota followed in this column, cash soy on October 15 was US$10.95 per bushel with a basis of US$0.90 under. Compared with the price on October 1, soy was US$0.84 higher, but the basis was unchanged.