October 20, 2004

Brazil's 2004 Soy Complex Exports Seen at $9.3 Billion

Brazil's 2004 soy complex export revenue should total $9.3 billion, Antonio Donizeti Beraldo, the National Confederation of Agriculture (CNA) Foreign Trade Department head announced Tuesday.

Forecasts at the start of the year stated that Brazil's 2004 soy complex exports would total $9.7 billion to $10 billion.

Beraldo said the new figure is partly behind the lower-than-expected remuneration to be received from crop farming in 2004.

"Things aren't going to be so rosy," said Beraldo, who explained that the 2003/04 soybean crop totaled 50 million tons. In the case of the 2004/05 crop, initial forecasts are of 62 million to 63 million tons of soybeans to be harvested.

"Production will be 25% greater but falling international prices won't allow export revenue to grow at the same pace," he said.

The lower revenue will be partly caused by bumper US production.

In April, Brazilian soybeans were exported at $360/ton, falling to $220/ton over the past few days.

Brazil's soy complex exports totaled $8.72 billion from January to September, up 38.3% on the same period last year.

Brazil's agribusiness trade surplus also totaled $26.25 billion over Jan - Sep, rising 39.4% on the same period in 2003.

"Brazilian agribusiness exports (Jan-Sep) were 42.5% of the country's entire exports," said Beraldo.