October 19, 2009

The slow US soy harvest is holding up soft red winter wheat seeding and sparking concerns that persistent delays could prompt producers to change their planting plans.

 

Wet weather has prevented growers in the Midwest and Delta, who often plant wheat after soy, from bringing in their crop. The soy harvest was just 23 percent complete as of Sunday, down from the average of 57 percent, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

 

Farmers in Illinois had combined 10 percent of their soy, well below the average of 64 percent, and planted 12 percent of their winter wheat crop, below the average of 43 percent. In Indiana, the soy harvest was 19 percent complete, below the average of 55 percent, and wheat planting was 13 percent complete, down from the average of 44 percent.

 

"The delay in harvesting soy is affecting planting of wheat. I'm starting to get worried a little bit," said Shaun Casteel, Purdue University Extension agronomist for small grains. "I'm certainly looking at it and it's on my radar."

 

The late harvest follows development delays that have defined the growing season for soy and corn this year. A late spring planting and generally cool summer slowed development.

 

Producers were not able to advance the harvest much this week due to cool temperatures and continued wetness, although there is hope that warmer, drier conditions next week will open up a window for producers. AgResource Company estimated harvest could be 35 percent complete by the end of the weekend, which would be down from 67 percent at the same time last year.

 

Worries about the impact of the slow harvest on wheat plantings are "real," said Bill Wiebold, extension specialist for the University of Missouri. Seeding in the state was 13 percent complete as of Sunday, down from the average of 28 percent, while the soy harvest was 17 percent complete, down from the average of 36 percent, according to the USDA.

 

"If the sun comes out in a couple days, it'll be a story that we'll forget," Wiebold said about the planting delays. "I don't think that'll happen. When I watch the radars sweep through the states, many of the places where we grow soft red wheat, we've got wet soil. The wet soil's not such a problem, except that it continues to get wet and it doesn't dry in between rain events."

 

Casteel said it was "definitely a possibility" that some producers may not seed SRW wheat because they missed the optimal planting period. However, it's difficult to gauge how many acres could be lost because growers are focused on wrapping up the soy harvest.

 

"My gut would say most guys are just wanting to get this year's crop out and worry about wheat later," Casteel said. "We've got some guys that are harvesting beans whenever they can."

 

The optimal planting date for wheat in Indiana is within one to two weeks of the average Hessian fly-free date, which is the date after which the probability of seeing problems related to the pest are minimal. Late-planted wheat often has limited vegetative growth that can decrease winter survivability, increase the susceptibility of heaving and reduce yield.

 

The date differs depending on location. The optimal planting period has already passed for northern Indiana, is ending for central areas and is still open for some southern areas, Casteel said.

 

In Missouri, Wiebold said he was "guessing some people won't plant" wheat this fall because of the delay. However, planting projections may be premature because "we're mid-October so it's not a huge concern yet," he said.

 

Some analysts downplayed the concern about the slow start to planting, as well. Wheat prices rallied during the past week, but the gains were mainly supported by technical buying, they said.

 

"We're not out of time yet," said Tom Leffler, owner of Leffler Commodities. "When you look at the fact that you're already getting a little behind and the weather's not cooperating, you start looking at worse-case scenarios."

 

Others said the delays were a serious concern.

 

"Harvest is way behind," said Dale Durchholz, analyst for AgriVisor. "Wheat planting is not happening and isn't going to happen right away. With wheat prices like they are, you're just going to have people go, 'Forget it.'"

 

Analysts largely expect to see a decline in winter wheat plantings from last year due to the late soy harvest and a drop in wheat prices. Producers last year planted winter wheat on 43.3 million acres, according to the USDA. SRW wheat is used to make pastries and snack foods.