October 19, 2007

 

Analyst cuts forecast for EU 2007 wheat, corn crop

 

 

French analyst Strategie Grains has reduced its forecast this year for EU's soft wheat harvest by 2 million tonnes from last month at 112.7 million tonnes, down 4 percent from 2006.

 

The decline was mainly due to a cut in its estimates for the French, British, Danish and Polish wheat crops, according to the analyst's monthly report.

 

On the other hand, Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU wheat exports outside the 27-member bloc by 900,000 tonnes from last month, now expected at 8.2 million tonnes, following sharp foreseen export reductions by Australia and Ukraine.

 

The competitiveness of EU wheat to North African countries such as Algeria and Morocco can further elevate the region's exports but Russian wheat delivered to Egypt can deal a tough trade for EU.

 

The analyst also cut its 2007 corn (corn) crop estimate for the sixth time in a row, now estimated at 45.7 million tonnes, or 460,000 tonnes lower than its September forecast and down 7.3 million tonnes, or 14 percent, from last year.

 

An increase in France's corn crop estimate to 13.6 million tonnes, against 13.2 million last month, was insufficient to compensate for sharp reductions in Hungary and Romania, it said.

 

The analyst kept EU's corn imports at 10 million tonnes but it cut by 300,000 tonnes, to 6.7 million tonnes, its estimate of the volume coming from Brazil due to a deteriorated competitiveness, notably against French corn transported by road to northern Spain.

 

The reduction made the analyst raise its estimate of French corn sales within the EU bloc by 600,000 tonnes this month at 5.4 million tonnes.

 

Since last month, the analysts revised French corn exports to Spain by 375,000 tonnes to 1.6 million, to Italy by 110,000 tonnes to 1 million, as well as to Ireland and Belgium but in far smaller proportions.

 

Overall, Strategie Grains cut its estimate of the total EU grain output by 2.3 million tonnes to 254.7 million tonnes.